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ATP ParisMasters 1000Qualifying round 1hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Carreno Busta vs Bellucci 0:2: result and our tips

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Pablo Carreno BustaATP #74Elo 1938hard 1903
0:2final1:6 6:7(3)
Mattia BellucciATP #66Elo 1930hard 1904

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: BellucciWon55%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Bellucci: 7 matches in a row winning the first set; Carreno Busta lost the first set in 9 of the last 20 matches, Bellucci won the first set in 16 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Other tips

  • Total Games: Over 21.5Lost61%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Carreno Busta: 4 matches in a row over 21.5 games

  • Tie-break in Match: NoLost55%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 59% → with the players' profiles 55%

    No tie-break in recent matches: Carreno Busta 15 of 20, Bellucci 14 of 20 (tour average 61%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 25.5Lost41%

Where the number comes from: market alone 39% → with the players' profiles 41%

Carreno Busta: 4 matches in a row over 25.5 games; Over 25.5 games in recent matches: Carreno Busta 9 of 20, Bellucci 9 of 20 (tour average 35%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Pablo Carreno Busta39%
Mattia Bellucci61%

Elo: P. Carreno Busta 50% · M. Bellucci 50%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 P. Carreno Busta23%
2:1 P. Carreno Busta18%
2:1 M. Bellucci22%
2:0 M. Bellucci38%

First set

Pablo Carreno Busta43%
Mattia Bellucci57%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 53%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.574%26%68%
20.566%34%60%
21.560%40%54%
22.553%47%46%
23.546%54%40%
24.542%58%38%
25.539%61%35%

Sample: 5,970 matches

Games handicap

M. Bellucci −2.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes44%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Over 22.5out · 20 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Pablo Carreno BustaMattia Bellucci
1Aces11
1Double faults3
65%First serves in74%
62%First-serve points won80%
48%Second-serve points won50%
1/2Break points converted3/10
6/9Service games held9/10
57%Service points won72%
28%Return points won43%
61Total points won77

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

P. Carreno BustaTourM. Bellucci
Service points won63%62%66%
Return points won39%38%37%
Service games held77%76%83%
Breaks of serve25%24%22%
Aces per service game0.260.57
Double faults per game0.150.24
Sets with a tie-break10%18%
Tie-breaks won9/1414/29
Wins in straight sets53%73%
Matches in the sample5469

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Pablo Carreno Busta

Mattia Bellucci

Elo over the last year

Pablo Carreno BustaMattia Bellucci

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

P. Carreno BustaM. Bellucci
Hard court13–1448%28–1861%
Clay18–772%7–750%
Grass1–150%5–456%

Head to head

P. Carreno Busta 1–0 M. Bellucci

  • 03/01/26Winner: P. Carreno Busta6:4 2:6 7:6

See also