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Challenger Villa MariaChallenger 50Round of 32claybest of three sets

Cigarran vs Casanova 1:2: result and our tips

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Thiago CigarranATP #595Elo 1500clay 1506
1:2final6:1 5:7 4:6
Hernan CasanovaATP #438Elo 1587clay 1595

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: CasanovaLost71%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Cigarran lost the first set in 12 of the last 20 matches, Casanova won the first set in 12 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Other tips

  • Total Games: Over 18.5Won56%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 67% → with the players' profiles 56%

    Over 18.5 games in recent matches: Cigarran 17 of 20, Casanova 14 of 20 (tour average 68%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Thiago Cigarran23%
Hernan Casanova77%

Elo: T. Cigarran 37% · H. Casanova 63%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 T. Cigarran12%
2:1 T. Cigarran11%
2:1 H. Casanova22%
2:0 H. Casanova54%

First set

Thiago Cigarran30%
Hernan Casanova70%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes33%
no67%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 20.5 · 55%market (no margin): 52%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.1

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
16.576%24%84%
17.566%34%76%
18.557%43%68%
19.550%50%59%
20.545%55%52%
21.539%61%46%
22.535%65%40%

Sample: 2,858 matches

Games handicap

H. Casanova −4.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes16%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 20.5out · 29 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Thiago CigarranHernan Casanova
4Aces0
2Double faults2
62%First serves in84%
70%First-serve points won61%
50%Second-serve points won50%
4/4Break points converted3/10
11/14Service games held11/15
62%Service points won59%
41%Return points won38%
91Total points won84

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

T. CigarranTourH. Casanova
Service points won58%62%58%
Return points won41%38%43%
Service games held68%76%69%
Breaks of serve31%24%35%
Aces per service game0.210.10
Double faults per game0.290.11
Sets with a tie-break10%7%
Tie-breaks won3/93/6
Wins in straight sets55%71%
Matches in the sample4038

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Thiago Cigarran

  • 13/10/26LNicolas Kicker#340Challenger Santa Cruz 2 · R323:6 2:6
  • 12/10/26WLorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez#517Challenger Santa Cruz 2 · Q26:4 6:4
  • 11/10/26WBoris AriasChallenger Santa Cruz 2 · Q16:2 3:6 6:4
  • 06/10/26LMiguel Tobon#432Challenger Antofagasta · R326:4 4:6 1:6
  • 05/10/26WNicolas Kicker#340Challenger Antofagasta · Q26:3 3:0
  • 04/10/26WAnders MattaChallenger Antofagasta · Q16:2 6:2
  • 21/09/26LTomas Martinez#793Challenger Buenos Aires 2 · Q21:6 0:4
  • 20/09/26WSantiago PesinoChallenger Buenos Aires 2 · Q16:4 7:5
  • 06/09/26LTiago Pereira#318Challenger Seville · Q13:6 6:2 6:7
  • 18/08/26LLorenzo Giustino#272Challenger Sion · R324:6 3:6

Hernan Casanova

  • 19/10/26LGonzalo Bueno#198Challenger Cali · R326:2 3:6 2:6
  • 13/10/26LJuan Manuel La Serna#254Challenger Santa Cruz 2 · R323:6 4:6
  • 12/10/26WWilson Leite#695Challenger Santa Cruz 2 · Q26:2 6:4
  • 11/10/26WAlexandre BobiereChallenger Santa Cruz 2 · Q16:0 6:0
  • 05/10/26LBernardo Munk MesaChallenger Antofagasta · Q21:6 6:2 4:6
  • 04/10/26WWilson Leite#695Challenger Antofagasta · Q16:3 3:6 6:4
  • 29/09/26LGustavo Heide#112Challenger Curitiba · R322:6 1:6
  • 22/09/26LMurkel Dellien#450Challenger Buenos Aires 2 · R323:6 4:6
  • 04/08/26LYannick Theodor Alexandrescou#824Challenger Plovdiv 2 · R326:7 3:6
  • 10/07/26LNicolas Mejia#115Challenger Bogota · QF3:6 2:6

Elo over the last year

Thiago CigarranHernan Casanova

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

T. CigarranH. Casanova
Clay20–2050%21–1755%

Head to head

They have not met yet.