de Minaur vs Khachanov 2:0: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: market alone 65% → with the players' profiles 69%
de Minaur: 4 matches in a row over 20.5 games
Where the number comes from: market alone 42% → with the players' profiles 48%
A tie-break in recent matches: de Minaur 10 of 20, Khachanov 11 of 20 (tour average 38%)
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: A. de Minaur 67% · K. Khachanov 33%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 24.6
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20.5 | 69% | 31% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 63% | 38% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 56% | 44% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 48% | 52% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 44% | 56% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 41% | 59% | 34% |
| 26.5 | 37% | 64% | 30% |
Sample: 5,445 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 39%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite won
- Most likely set scorehit 2:0
- Total games Over 23.0out · 19 games
- Games handicapcovered
- Tie-breakno tie-break
Match stats
| Alex de Minaur | Karen Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Aces | 3 |
| 1 | Double faults | 0 |
| 71% | First serves in | 56% |
| 80% | First-serve points won | 77% |
| 63% | Second-serve points won | 50% |
| 2/3 | Break points converted | 0/1 |
| 10/10 | Service games held | 7/9 |
| 75% | Service points won | 65% |
| 35% | Return points won | 25% |
| 61 | Total points won | 49 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| A. de Minaur | Tour | K. Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 64% | 62% | 67% |
| Return points won | 40% | 38% | 36% |
| Service games held | 81% | 76% | 85% |
| Breaks of serve | 26% | 24% | 21% |
| Aces per service game | 0.37 | 0.56 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.24 | 0.15 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 18% | 21% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 19/29 | 10/30 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 69% | 48% | |
| Matches in the sample | 65 | 50 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Alex de Minaur
- 11/10/26WRei Sakamoto#137ATP Shanghai · R327:6 6:4
- 06/10/26LNovak Djokovic#8ATP Beijing · F6:7 1:0
- 05/10/26WHubert Hurkacz#34ATP Beijing · SF6:4 3:2
- 04/10/26WAndrey Rublev#23ATP Beijing · QF1:6 6:2 6:3
- 03/10/26WQuentin Halys#48ATP Beijing · R163:6 7:6 7:5
- 01/10/26WMariano Navone#47ATP Beijing · R327:6 6:2
- 03/09/26LBotic Van de Zandschulp#41ATP US Open · R644:6 5:7 2:6
- 02/09/26WAndrea Guerrieri#165ATP US Open · R1286:2 6:2 6:4
- 19/08/26LArthur Fils#11ATP Cincinnati · R163:6 4:6
- 17/08/26WArthur Fery#37ATP Cincinnati · R327:5 7:6
Karen Khachanov
- 11/10/26WAdrian Mannarino#83ATP Shanghai · R326:2 6:4
- 09/10/26WArthur Fery#37ATP Shanghai · R647:6 6:7 7:6
- 04/10/26LHubert Hurkacz#34ATP Beijing · QF6:7 2:6
- 02/10/26WAlex Molcan#84ATP Beijing · R167:5 6:3
- 30/09/26WFelix Auger-Aliassime#5ATP Beijing · R326:3 6:3
- 11/09/26LAlexander Zverev#2ATP US Open · SF3:6 6:7 6:7
- 09/09/26WAlexander Blockx#28ATP US Open · QF6:2 7:5 3:2
- 07/09/26WLearner Tien#17ATP US Open · R167:5 4:6 6:7 6:1 6:4
- 05/09/26WBenjamin Bonzi#92ATP US Open · R326:3 6:2 6:4
- 03/09/26WFelix Auger-Aliassime#5ATP US Open · R646:7 6:3 6:2 6:2
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| A. de Minaur | K. Khachanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 27–1466% | 18–1555% |
| Clay | 7–654% | 7–654% |
| Grass | 8–373% | 2–250% |
Head to head
A. de Minaur 2–2 K. Khachanov
- 30/10/25Winner: Alex de Minaur6:2 6:2
- 26/10/24Winner: Karen Khachanov2:6 4:6
- 22/02/22Winner: Karen Khachanov3:6 7:6 5:7
- 05/09/20Winner: Alex de Minaur6:4 0:6 4:6 6:3 6:1
Road through the tournament
Alex de Minaur
- 11/10/26WRei Sakamoto#137ATP Shanghai · R327:6 6:4
Karen Khachanov
- 09/10/26WArthur Fery#37ATP Shanghai · R647:6 6:7 7:6
- 11/10/26WAdrian Mannarino#83ATP Shanghai · R326:2 6:4