de Minaur vs Sakamoto 2:0: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: market alone 69% → with the players' profiles 71%
Sakamoto: 7 matches in a row over 19.5 games
Other tips
- Match Winner: de MinaurWon70%
Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 70%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data
de Minaur won 7 of the last 10 matches
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Sakamoto: 5 matches in a row winning the first set
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: A. de Minaur 77% · R. Sakamoto 23%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.9
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 71% | 29% | 68% |
| 20.5 | 63% | 37% | 59% |
| 21.5 | 57% | 43% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 49% | 51% | 45% |
| 23.5 | 42% | 58% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 39% | 61% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 36% | 64% | 34% |
Sample: 4,600 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 38%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite won
- Most likely set scorehit 2:0
- Total games Over 22.0in · 23 games
- Games handicapnot covered
- Tie-breaktie-break played
Match stats
| Alex de Minaur | Rei Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Aces | 13 |
| 2 | Double faults | 0 |
| 59% | First serves in | 67% |
| 92% | First-serve points won | 71% |
| 62% | Second-serve points won | 58% |
| 1/1 | Break points converted | 0/2 |
| 11/11 | Service games held | 10/11 |
| 80% | Service points won | 67% |
| 33% | Return points won | 20% |
| 75 | Total points won | 62 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| A. de Minaur | Tour | R. Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 64% | 62% | 66% |
| Return points won | 40% | 38% | 37% |
| Service games held | 81% | 76% | 83% |
| Breaks of serve | 27% | 24% | 21% |
| Aces per service game | 0.36 | 0.66 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.24 | 0.19 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 17% | 23% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 18/28 | 19/41 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 62% | |
| Matches in the sample | 64 | 72 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Alex de Minaur
- 06/10/26LNovak Djokovic#8ATP Beijing · F6:7 1:0
- 05/10/26WHubert Hurkacz#34ATP Beijing · SF6:4 3:2
- 04/10/26WAndrey Rublev#23ATP Beijing · QF1:6 6:2 6:3
- 03/10/26WQuentin Halys#48ATP Beijing · R163:6 7:6 7:5
- 01/10/26WMariano Navone#47ATP Beijing · R327:6 6:2
- 03/09/26LBotic Van de Zandschulp#41ATP US Open · R644:6 5:7 2:6
- 02/09/26WAndrea Guerrieri#165ATP US Open · R1286:2 6:2 6:4
- 19/08/26LArthur Fils#11ATP Cincinnati · R163:6 4:6
- 17/08/26WArthur Fery#37ATP Cincinnati · R327:5 7:6
- 15/08/26WQuentin Halys#48ATP Cincinnati · R641:6 6:3 7:6
Rei Sakamoto
- 09/10/26WAndrey Rublev#23ATP Shanghai · R646:4 6:4
- 07/10/26WMarco Trungelliti#90ATP Shanghai · R1286:3 7:5
- 06/10/26WKyrian Jacquet#76ATP Shanghai · Q27:6 4:6 7:6
- 05/10/26WSeongchan HongATP Shanghai · Q16:3 7:5
- 30/09/26LMatteo Arnaldi#38ATP Tokyo · R326:2 4:6 4:6
- 08/09/26LJi Sung Nam#827Challenger Shanghai · R326:7 4:6
- 02/09/26LFrances Tiafoe#10ATP US Open · R643:6 6:7 5:7
- 30/08/26WAleksandar Vukic#115ATP US Open · R1286:4 6:7 6:4 3:6 6:4
- 28/08/26WKei NishikoriATP US Open · Q36:4 7:6
- 26/08/26WAlexandre Muller#133ATP US Open · Q26:3 6:3
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| A. de Minaur | R. Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 26–1465% | 34–1964% |
| Clay | 7–654% | 9–660% |
| Grass | 8–373% | 2–250% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Alex de Minaur
First match in this tournament.
Rei Sakamoto
- 05/10/26WSeongchan HongATP Shanghai · Q16:3 7:5
- 06/10/26WKyrian Jacquet#76ATP Shanghai · Q27:6 4:6 7:6
- 07/10/26WMarco Trungelliti#90ATP Shanghai · R1286:3 7:5
- 09/10/26WAndrey Rublev#23ATP Shanghai · R646:4 6:4