Challenger LisbonChallenger 125Round of 32claybest of three sets

Dodig vs Domingues 2:0: result and our tips

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Matej DodigATP #138Elo 1892clay 1894
2:0final6:1 6:3
Joao DominguesATP #578Elo 1475clay 1471

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 19.5Won68%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Domingues: 3 matches in a row under 19.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Matej Dodig94%
Joao Domingues6%

Elo: M. Dodig 92% · J. Domingues 8%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Dodig81%
2:1 M. Dodig13%
2:1 J. Domingues3%
2:0 J. Domingues3%

First set

Matej Dodig89%
Joao Domingues11%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes16%
no84%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 18.5 · 61%market (no margin): 50%

The 18.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 18.7

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
14.582%18%96%
15.569%31%91%
16.558%42%84%
17.546%54%76%
18.539%61%68%
19.532%68%59%
20.526%74%52%

Sample: 1,257 matches

Games handicap

Matej Dodig −6.556%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes13%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 18.5in · 16 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Matej DodigJoao Domingues
1Aces0
1Double faults0
55%First serves in63%
68%First-serve points won49%
56%Second-serve points won36%
5/9Break points converted1/7
7/8Service games held3/8
63%Service points won44%
56%Return points won38%
68Total points won47

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. DodigTourJ. Domingues
Service points won65%62%57%
Return points won38%38%40%
Service games held82%76%67%
Breaks of serve23%24%28%
Aces per service game0.550.17
Double faults per game0.170.18
Sets with a tie-break17%19%
Tie-breaks won17/294/5
Wins in straight sets54%75%
Matches in the sample7211

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Matej Dodig

Joao Domingues

Elo over the last year

Matej DodigJoao Domingues

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. DodigJ. Domingues
Hard court14–1156%1–233%
Clay33–1273%3–538%
Grass1–150%0–0

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Matej Dodig

First match in this tournament.

Joao Domingues