Challenger OlbiaChallenger 175Finalhardbest of three sets

Fearnley vs Dzumhur 0:2: result and our tips

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Jacob FearnleyATP #87Elo 1958hard 1913
0:2final6:7(4) 3:6
Damir DzumhurATP #83Elo 1824hard 1780

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Match Winner: FearnleyLost71%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 71%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Fearnley won 8 of the last 10 matches; Fearnley: 5 wins in a row

Other tips

  • 1st Set Winner: FearnleyLost66%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Fearnley: 5 matches in a row winning the first set

  • Total Games: Under 22.5Won59%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 56% → with the players' profiles 59%

    Fearnley: 5 matches in a row under 22.5 games; Under 22.5 games in recent matches: Fearnley 14 of 20, Dzumhur 13 of 20 (tour average 58%)

Long shot
Total Games: Under 19.5Lost39%

Where the number comes from: market alone 36% → with the players' profiles 39%

Fearnley: 5 matches in a row under 19.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Jacob Fearnley71%
Damir Dzumhur29%

Elo: J. Fearnley 68% · D. Dzumhur 32%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J. Fearnley48%
2:1 J. Fearnley22%
2:1 D. Dzumhur13%
2:0 D. Dzumhur17%

First set

Jacob Fearnley66%
Damir Dzumhur34%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes35%
no65%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.0 · 48%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.5

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.569%31%71%
19.561%40%62%
20.554%46%54%
21.548%52%49%
22.541%59%42%
23.537%63%37%
24.535%66%35%

Sample: 4,528 matches

Games handicap

Jacob Fearnley −3.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes28%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 0:2
  • Total games Over 21.0in · 22 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Jacob FearnleyDamir Dzumhur
2Aces1
2Double faults3
74%First serves in64%
64%First-serve points won77%
69%Second-serve points won54%
1/4Break points converted2/7
8/10Service games held10/11
66%Service points won69%
32%Return points won34%
63Total points won71

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J. FearnleyTourD. Dzumhur
Service points won62%62%59%
Return points won40%38%40%
Service games held76%76%69%
Breaks of serve28%24%28%
Aces per service game0.400.13
Double faults per game0.460.17
Sets with a tie-break20%15%
Tie-breaks won15/3311/21
Wins in straight sets62%59%
Matches in the sample6459

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Jacob Fearnley

Damir Dzumhur

Elo over the last year

Jacob FearnleyDamir Dzumhur

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J. FearnleyD. Dzumhur
Hard court24–2055%12–1446%
Clay2–340%13–1645%
Grass11–473%2–250%

Head to head

J. Fearnley 1–1 D. Dzumhur

  • 05/03/26Winner: Jacob Fearnley6:3 6:3
  • 03/11/25Winner: Damir Dzumhur4:6 2:6

Road through the tournament

Jacob Fearnley

Damir Dzumhur

See also