Challenger OlbiaChallenger 175Semifinalhardbest of three sets

Fearnley vs Nardi 2:0: result and our tips

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Jacob FearnleyATP #87Elo 1950hard 1902
2:0final6:2 6:4
Luca NardiATP #241Elo 1755hard 1752

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: FearnleyWon64%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Fearnley: 4 matches in a row winning the first set

Other tips

  • Match Winner: FearnleyWon69%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 69%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Fearnley: 4 wins in a row; Fearnley won 7 of the last 10 matches

  • Total Games: Over 18.5Lost72%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Over 18.5 games in recent matches: Fearnley 16 of 20, Nardi 17 of 20 (tour average 71%)

Long shot
Total Games: Under 19.5Won37%

Where the number comes from: market alone 35% → with the players' profiles 37%

Fearnley: 4 matches in a row under 19.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Jacob Fearnley69%
Luca Nardi31%

Elo: J. Fearnley 70% · L. Nardi 30%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J. Fearnley47%
2:1 J. Fearnley22%
2:1 L. Nardi14%
2:0 L. Nardi18%

First set

Jacob Fearnley64%
Luca Nardi36%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no64%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.5 · 51%market (no margin): 50%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.572%29%71%
19.563%37%62%
20.556%44%54%
21.551%50%49%
22.544%56%42%
23.539%62%37%
24.536%64%35%

Sample: 4,822 matches

Games handicap

Jacob Fearnley −3.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes31%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Over 21.5out · 18 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Jacob FearnleyLuca Nardi
2Aces2
1Double faults5
65%First serves in64%
68%First-serve points won49%
67%Second-serve points won55%
4/7Break points converted1/1
8/9Service games held5/9
67%Service points won51%
49%Return points won33%
62Total points won45

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J. FearnleyTourL. Nardi
Service points won62%62%61%
Return points won40%38%39%
Service games held76%76%76%
Breaks of serve28%24%26%
Aces per service game0.400.34
Double faults per game0.470.26
Sets with a tie-break21%20%
Tie-breaks won15/338/20
Wins in straight sets61%79%
Matches in the sample6340

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Jacob Fearnley

Luca Nardi

Elo over the last year

Jacob FearnleyLuca Nardi

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J. FearnleyL. Nardi
Hard court23–2053%13–1350%
Clay2–340%3–538%
Grass11–473%3–350%

Head to head

J. Fearnley 1–0 L. Nardi

  • 10/06/26Winner: Jacob Fearnley4:6 6:0 6:3

Road through the tournament

Jacob Fearnley

Luca Nardi

See also