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Challenger Villa MariaChallenger 50Round of 32claybest of three sets

Fernandez vs Kicker 1:2: result and our tips

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Bruno FernandezATP #553Elo 1404clay 1414
1:2final4:6 6:3 1:6
Nicolas KickerATP #340Elo 1670clay 1680

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 23.5Lost70%

Where the number comes from: market alone 68% → with the players' profiles 70%

Kicker: 6 matches in a row under 23.5 games

Other tips

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost70%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Kicker: 6 matches in a row without a deciding set

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Bruno Fernandez18%
Nicolas Kicker82%

Elo: B. Fernandez 18% · N. Kicker 82%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 B. Fernandez9%
2:1 B. Fernandez9%
2:1 N. Kicker22%
2:0 N. Kicker60%

First set

Bruno Fernandez25%
Nicolas Kicker75%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes30%
no70%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 20.0 · 53%market (no margin): 50%

The 20.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 20.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
16.574%26%84%
17.564%36%76%
18.554%46%68%
19.547%53%59%
20.542%58%52%
21.536%64%46%
22.532%68%40%

Sample: 2,190 matches

Games handicap

N. Kicker −5.546%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes17%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 20.0out · 26 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Bruno FernandezNicolas Kicker
8Aces2
4Double faults4
61%First serves in69%
69%First-serve points won74%
46%Second-serve points won48%
1/5Break points converted3/15
10/13Service games held12/13
60%Service points won66%
34%Return points won40%
87Total points won96

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

B. FernandezTourN. Kicker
Service points won59%62%59%
Return points won40%38%42%
Service games held71%76%70%
Breaks of serve28%24%33%
Aces per service game0.250.14
Double faults per game0.350.20
Sets with a tie-break11%5%
Tie-breaks won1/92/6
Wins in straight sets50%72%
Matches in the sample3556

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Bruno Fernandez

  • 12/10/26LMateus Alves#413Challenger Santa Cruz 2 · Q21:6 6:3 3:6
  • 11/10/26WNicolas DonosoChallenger Santa Cruz 2 · Q16:0 6:1
  • 04/10/26LBernardo Munk MesaChallenger Antofagasta · Q14:6 3:6
  • 30/09/26LLautaro Midon#185Challenger Curitiba · R162:6 5:7
  • 29/09/26WWilson Leite#695Challenger Curitiba · R326:4 1:6 6:2
  • 28/09/26LVictor Hugo Remondy Pagotto#780Challenger Curitiba · Q26:7 6:4 3:6
  • 27/09/26WFederico ZeballosChallenger Curitiba · Q13:6 7:5 6:4
  • 22/09/26LFranco Roncadelli#261Challenger Buenos Aires 2 · R322:6 0:6
  • 21/09/26LTomas Farjat#775Challenger Buenos Aires 2 · Q24:6 2:6
  • 20/09/26WDante PaganiChallenger Buenos Aires 2 · Q16:4 6:4

Nicolas Kicker

  • 20/10/26LDiego Dedura#188Challenger Cali · R324:6 4:6
  • 16/10/26LThiago Seyboth Wild#110Challenger Santa Cruz 2 · QF1:6 1:6
  • 15/10/26WFacundo Mena#196Challenger Santa Cruz 2 · R167:6 6:4
  • 13/10/26WThiago Cigarran#595Challenger Santa Cruz 2 · R326:3 6:2
  • 05/10/26LThiago Cigarran#595Challenger Antofagasta · Q23:6 0:3
  • 04/10/26WMilledge CossuChallenger Antofagasta · Q16:3 6:4
  • 25/09/26LFacundo Mena#196Challenger Buenos Aires 2 · QF4:6 4:6
  • 23/09/26WHugo Dellien#107Challenger Buenos Aires 2 · R164:6 7:5 6:0
  • 22/09/26WTomas Martinez#793Challenger Buenos Aires 2 · R321:6 6:2 6:0
  • 16/08/26LMaxim Mrva#231Challenger Todi · F2:6 2:6

Elo over the last year

Bruno FernandezNicolas Kicker

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

B. FernandezN. Kicker
Hard court0–01–150%
Clay14–2140%28–2652%

Head to head

B. Fernandez 0–1 N. Kicker

  • 25/06/26Winner: N. Kicker6:7 6:4 4:6