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Challenger Costa do SauipeChallenger 175Round of 32claybest of three sets

Heide vs Justo 2:0: result and our tips

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Gustavo HeideATP #112Elo 1806clay 1829
2:0final7:6(6) 7:6(4)
Guido Ivan JustoATP #186Elo 1783clay 1793

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 22.5Lost62%

Where the number comes from: market alone 59% → with the players' profiles 62%

Under 22.5 games in recent matches: Heide 14 of 20, Justo 15 of 20 (tour average 60%)

Other tips

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Won65%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    No third set in recent matches: Heide 15 of 20, Justo 15 of 20 (tour average 66%)

  • Match Winner: HeideWon75%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 75%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Heide won 7 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Total Games: Under 19.5Lost45%

Where the number comes from: market alone 39% → with the players' profiles 45%

Under 19.5 games in recent matches: Heide 12 of 20, Justo 9 of 20 (tour average 41%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Gustavo Heide75%
Guido Ivan Justo26%

Elo: G. Heide 55% · G. Justo 45%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 G. Heide51%
2:1 G. Heide23%
2:1 G. Justo12%
2:0 G. Justo14%

First set

Gustavo Heide68%
Guido Ivan Justo32%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes35%
no65%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.0 · 51%market (no margin): 49%

The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.573%27%76%
18.563%37%68%
19.555%45%59%
20.550%51%52%
21.543%57%46%
22.538%62%40%
23.535%65%36%

Sample: 3,259 matches

Games handicap

G. Heide −4.547%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes21%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 21.0out · 26 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Gustavo HeideGuido Ivan Justo
4Aces1
7Double faults2
52%First serves in61%
71%First-serve points won58%
51%Second-serve points won54%
4/7Break points converted4/8
8/12Service games held8/12
61%Service points won57%
43%Return points won39%
91Total points won84

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

G. HeideTourG. Justo
Service points won63%62%60%
Return points won41%38%45%
Service games held79%76%73%
Breaks of serve29%24%38%
Aces per service game0.380.14
Double faults per game0.430.16
Sets with a tie-break8%11%
Tie-breaks won9/139/20
Wins in straight sets77%66%
Matches in the sample7183

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Gustavo Heide

Guido Ivan Justo

Elo over the last year

Gustavo HeideGuido Ivan Justo

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

G. HeideG. Justo
Hard court1–517%0–10%
Clay45–1871%53–2965%
Grass1–150%0–0

Head to head

G. Heide 1–1 G. Justo

  • 04/10/26Winner: G. Justo1:6 4:6
  • 10/04/26Winner: G. Heide6:3 6:4

See also