Challenger SydneyChallenger 75Qualifying round 2hardbest of three setsqualifying
Jones vs Nakagawa: prediction and tips
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Our tips
No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Hayden Jones42%
Naoki Nakagawa58%
Elo: H. Jones 22% · N. Nakagawa 78%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 H. Jones25%
2:1 H. Jones17%
2:1 N. Nakagawa21%
2:0 N. Nakagawa37%
First set
Hayden Jones44%
Naoki Nakagawa56%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%
Total games
Expected total: 23.4
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 68% | 32% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 60% | 40% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 55% | 45% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 47% | 53% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 41% | 59% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 40% | 60% | 35% |
| 25.5 | 36% | 64% | 32% |
Sample: 6,136 matches
Games handicap
N. Nakagawa −2.548%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes35%
tour average 32%
Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| H. Jones | Tour | N. Nakagawa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 61% | 62% | 66% |
| Return points won | 37% | 38% | 38% |
| Service games held | 75% | 76% | 83% |
| Breaks of serve | 20% | 24% | 22% |
| Aces per service game | 0.47 | 0.75 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.40 | 0.20 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 20% | 13% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 2/2 | 2/3 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 100% | 83% | |
| Matches in the sample | 4 | 10 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Hayden Jones
- 08/11/26LAnton Shepp#477Challenger Brisbane 3 · Q11:6 7:6 4:6
- 24/11/25LRyuki Matsuda#661Challenger Playford · Q14:6 5:7
- 23/11/25WJoshua Charlton#873Challenger Playford · Q17:6 6:3
- 18/11/25LMarek Gengel#409Challenger Sydney · R327:5 4:6 5:7
- 10/11/25LCarl Emil Overbeck#308Challenger Brisbane 3 · Q24:6 2:6
- 09/11/25WColin Sinclair#479Challenger Brisbane 3 · Q17:6 7:6
- 21/09/25LAntoine Ghibaudo#505Challenger Las Vegas · Q15:7 6:3 1:6
- 01/06/25LMoerani Bouzige#480Challenger Tyler · Q12:6 6:4 4:6
- 25/05/25LYusuke Takahashi#795Challenger Little Rock · Q13:6 2:6
- 27/04/25LAndre Ilagan#196Challenger Guangzhou · Q11:6 1:6
Naoki Nakagawa
- 29/03/26LYusuke Takahashi#795Challenger Miyazaki · Q14:6 4:6
- 10/02/26LLi Tu#504Challenger Brisbane 2 · R327:6 4:6 6:7
- 09/02/26WRyo Tabata#844Challenger Brisbane 2 · Q26:1 6:4
- 08/02/26WCooper KoseChallenger Brisbane 2 · Q17:6 6:2
- 05/02/26LCruz Hewitt#326Challenger Brisbane · R164:6 6:3 1:6
- 03/02/26WAdam Walton#96Challenger Brisbane · R324:6 6:3 6:4
- 02/02/26WMasamichi Imamura#439Challenger Brisbane · Q26:4 6:4
- 01/02/26WKody PearsonChallenger Brisbane · Q16:0 6:3
- 17/11/25LJumpei YamasakiChallenger Yokohama · Q23:6 1:6
- 16/11/25WYuma TobeChallenger Yokohama · Q16:4 6:0
Elo over the last year
Hayden JonesNaoki Nakagawa
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| H. Jones | N. Nakagawa | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 1–325% | 6–460% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
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