Challenger MaiaChallenger 125Qualifying round 2claybest of three setsqualifying

Karol vs Krutykh 2:1: result and our tips

·

Milos KarolATP #583Elo 1557clay 1538
2:1final6:1 5:7 7:6(3)
Oleksii KrutykhATP #456Elo 1655clay 1655

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: KrutykhLost60%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Karol lost the first set in 11 of the last 20 matches, Krutykh won the first set in 13 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Other tips

  • Match Winner: KrutykhLost63%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 63%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Krutykh won 7 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Set Betting: Krutykh 2-0Lost41%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Karol lost 0-2 in 7 of the last 20 matches, Krutykh won 2-0 in 10 of the last 20 matches (tour average 33%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Milos Karol37%
Oleksii Krutykh63%

Elo: M. Karol 34% · O. Krutykh 66%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Karol21%
2:1 M. Karol16%
2:1 O. Krutykh23%
2:0 O. Krutykh41%

First set

Milos Karol40%
Oleksii Krutykh60%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 53%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.568%32%59%
20.560%40%52%
21.554%46%47%
22.547%53%40%
23.542%58%36%
24.539%61%34%
25.536%65%30%

Sample: 4,713 matches

Games handicap

Oleksii Krutykh −3.547%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes34%

tour average 27%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 22.5out · 32 games
  • Games handicapnot covered

Match stats

Milos KarolOleksii Krutykh
16Aces5
5Double faults3
59%First serves in61%
82%First-serve points won70%
44%Second-serve points won49%
4/10Break points converted3/6
13/16Service games held11/15
66%Service points won62%
38%Return points won34%
105Total points won95

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. KarolTourO. Krutykh
Service points won65%62%64%
Return points won36%38%42%
Service games held82%76%79%
Breaks of serve20%24%31%
Aces per service game0.860.25
Double faults per game0.360.24
Sets with a tie-break24%11%
Tie-breaks won7/195/8
Wins in straight sets60%71%
Matches in the sample3231

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Milos Karol

Oleksii Krutykh

Elo over the last year

Milos KarolOleksii Krutykh

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. KarolO. Krutykh
Hard court8–753%0–0
Clay7–1041%21–1068%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Milos Karol

Oleksii Krutykh

See also