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Challenger FlorenceChallenger 50Semifinalclaybest of three sets

Kopp vs Romano 1:2: result and our tips

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Sandro KoppATP #293Elo 1644clay 1643
1:2final3:6 7:5 3:6
Filippo RomanoATP #243Elo 1655clay 1600

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost61%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Romano: 10 matches in a row without a deciding set; No third set in recent matches: Kopp 15 of 20, Romano 16 of 20 (tour average 66%)

Other tips

  • Total Games: Under 23.5Lost59%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Romano: 8 matches in a row under 23.5 games

Long shot
Total Games: Under 19.5Lost35%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Romano: 3 matches in a row under 19.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Sandro Kopp54%
Filippo Romano46%

Elo: S. Kopp 56% · F. Romano 44%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 S. Kopp34%
2:1 S. Kopp20%
2:1 F. Romano19%
2:0 F. Romano27%

First set

Sandro Kopp54%
Filippo Romano46%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 49%market (no margin): 52%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.574%26%68%
19.565%35%59%
20.557%43%52%
21.552%49%46%
22.545%55%40%
23.541%59%36%
24.539%61%34%

Sample: 4,583 matches

Games handicap

S. Kopp −1.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes30%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 22.0out · 30 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Sandro KoppFilippo Romano
3Aces6
2Double faults4
59%First serves in62%
55%First-serve points won68%
42%Second-serve points won43%
5/10Break points converted7/13
8/15Service games held10/15
50%Service points won59%
41%Return points won50%
93Total points won109

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

S. KoppTourF. Romano
Service points won62%62%62%
Return points won39%38%38%
Service games held77%76%78%
Breaks of serve25%24%24%
Aces per service game0.250.46
Double faults per game0.200.21
Sets with a tie-break16%17%
Tie-breaks won6/1811/21
Wins in straight sets75%63%
Matches in the sample4955

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Sandro Kopp

Filippo Romano

Elo over the last year

Sandro KoppFilippo Romano

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

S. KoppF. Romano
Hard court3–538%11–473%
Clay21–2051%12–1446%
Grass0–09–564%

Head to head

S. Kopp 1–0 F. Romano

  • 06/04/26Winner: S. Kopp6:4 6:4

Road through the tournament

Sandro Kopp

Filippo Romano