Challenger CaliChallenger 75Round of 16claybest of three sets

La Serna vs Torres 2:0: result and our tips

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Juan Manuel La SernaATP #253Elo 1669clay 1676
2:0final6:4 6:2
Juan Bautista TorresATP #298Elo 1628clay 1625

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: La SernaWon58%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

La Serna won the first set in 13 of the last 20 matches, Torres lost the first set in 12 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Other tips

  • Total Games: Over 17.5Won71%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 82% → with the players' profiles 71%

    Over 17.5 games in recent matches: La Serna 18 of 20, Torres 16 of 20 (tour average 76%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Juan Manuel La Serna59%
Juan Bautista Torres41%

Elo: J. La Serna 57% · J. Torres 43%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J. La Serna38%
2:1 J. La Serna22%
2:1 J. Torres17%
2:0 J. Torres23%

First set

Juan Manuel La Serna58%
Juan Bautista Torres42%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 56%market (no margin): 49%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.7

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.571%29%76%
18.563%37%68%
19.556%44%59%
20.550%50%52%
21.544%56%46%
22.540%60%40%
23.538%62%36%

Sample: 4,916 matches

Games handicap

Juan Manuel La Serna −2.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes18%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 21.5in · 18 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Juan Manuel La SernaJuan Bautista Torres
3Aces0
4Double faults5
67%First serves in55%
65%First-serve points won57%
65%Second-serve points won48%
4/8Break points converted1/3
8/9Service games held5/9
65%Service points won53%
47%Return points won35%
63Total points won48

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J. La SernaTourJ. Torres
Service points won59%62%58%
Return points won44%38%44%
Service games held71%76%68%
Breaks of serve35%24%36%
Aces per service game0.180.11
Double faults per game0.250.18
Sets with a tie-break9%13%
Tie-breaks won6/139/20
Wins in straight sets46%64%
Matches in the sample6366

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Juan Manuel La Serna

Juan Bautista Torres

Elo over the last year

Juan Manuel La SernaJuan Bautista Torres

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J. La SernaJ. Torres
Hard court2–167%0–0
Clay39–2165%36–3055%

Head to head

J. La Serna 2–0 J. Torres

  • 15/05/26Winner: Juan Manuel La Serna6:4 6:2
  • 12/01/26Winner: Juan Manuel La Serna6:3 2:6 6:4

Road through the tournament

Juan Manuel La Serna

Juan Bautista Torres