WTA OsakaWTA 250Round of 16hardbest of three sets
Li vs Sonmez: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 1mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Ann Li65%
Zeynep Sonmez35%
Elo: A. Li 62% · Z. Sonmez 38%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 A. Li41%
2:1 A. Li22%
2:1 Z. Sonmez16%
2:0 Z. Sonmez22%
First set
Ann Li60%
Zeynep Sonmez40%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 52%market (no margin): 51%
The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 22.5
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 69% | 31% | 64% |
| 19.5 | 61% | 39% | 56% |
| 20.5 | 54% | 46% | 49% |
| 21.5 | 48% | 52% | 44% |
| 22.5 | 42% | 58% | 38% |
| 23.5 | 38% | 62% | 34% |
| 24.5 | 36% | 64% | 32% |
Sample: 2,275 matches
Games handicap
Ann Li −3.548%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes25%
tour average 22%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| A. Li | Tour | Z. Sonmez | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 59% | 56% | 56% |
| Return points won | 42% | 44% | 46% |
| Service games held | 71% | 63% | 64% |
| Breaks of serve | 32% | 37% | 40% |
| Aces per service game | 0.44 | 0.10 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.26 | 0.25 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 13% | 9% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 10/18 | 9/13 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 52% | 57% | |
| Matches in the sample | 59 | 60 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Ann Li
- 20/10/26WEmerson Jones#134WTA Osaka · R325:7 6:0 6:3
- 16/10/26LIga Świątek#9WTA Wuhan · QF4:6 1:6
- 15/10/26WJanice Tjen#46WTA Wuhan · R166:1 7:6
- 14/10/26WAryna Sabalenka#2WTA Wuhan · R323:6 6:4 7:6
- 13/10/26WCamila Osorio#68WTA Wuhan · R646:1 3:0
- 07/10/26LElina Svitolina#6WTA Beijing · R162:6 3:6
- 05/10/26WBelinda Bencic#14WTA Beijing · R326:4 6:3
- 03/10/26WAshlyn Krueger#55WTA Beijing · R646:4 6:2
- 04/09/26LLinda Nosková#8WTA US Open · R322:6 7:6 2:6
- 02/09/26WDonna Vekic#36WTA US Open · R645:7 7:6 6:4
Zeynep Sonmez
- 20/10/26WMaya Joint#90WTA Osaka · R323:6 6:4 6:3
- 13/10/26LYulia Putintseva#66WTA Wuhan · R647:6 3:6 5:7
- 11/10/26WSinja Kraus#76WTA Wuhan · Q26:2 6:4
- 10/10/26WAnastasia Zakharova#111WTA Wuhan · Q16:3 6:2
- 30/09/26LMaddison Inglis#133WTA Beijing · R1284:6 4:6
- 16/09/26LIva Jovic#12WTA Guadalajara · R166:7 4:6
- 14/09/26WIryna Shymanovich#214WTA Guadalajara · R326:1 6:1
- 01/09/26LCoco Gauff#5WTA US Open · R1283:6 4:6
- 15/08/26LAmanda Anisimova#18WTA Cincinnati · R642:6 3:6
- 13/08/26WDaria Kasatkina#74WTA Cincinnati · R1282:6 7:6 6:3
Elo over the last year
Ann LiZeynep Sonmez
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| A. Li | Z. Sonmez | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 22–1756% | 20–1754% |
| Clay | 9–660% | 6–460% |
| Grass | 2–340% | 9–469% |
Head to head
A. Li 0–3 Z. Sonmez
- 29/06/26Winner: Zeynep Sonmez5:7 6:1 4:6
- 26/02/26Winner: Zeynep Sonmez6:3 6:7 4:6
- 04/11/24Winner: Zeynep Sonmez2:6 1:6
Road through the tournament
Ann Li
- 20/10/26WEmerson Jones#134WTA Osaka · R325:7 6:0 6:3
Zeynep Sonmez
- 20/10/26WMaya Joint#90WTA Osaka · R323:6 6:4 6:3