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Challenger Hersonissos 3Challenger 50Round of 32hardbest of three sets

Maestrelli vs Loge 2:0: result and our tips

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Francesco MaestrelliATP #168Elo 1657hard 1659
2:0final6:3 6:1
Jack LogeATP #401Elo 1605hard 1603

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 20.5Lost57%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 20.5 games in recent matches: Maestrelli 13 of 20, Loge 7 of 10 (tour average 54%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 22.5Lost45%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 22.5 games in recent matches: Maestrelli 11 of 20, Loge 5 of 10 (tour average 42%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Francesco Maestrelli68%
Jack Loge32%

Elo: F. Maestrelli 58% · J. Loge 42%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 F. Maestrelli45%
2:1 F. Maestrelli22%
2:1 J. Loge14%
2:0 J. Loge19%

First set

Francesco Maestrelli63%
Jack Loge37%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.5 · 52%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.572%28%71%
19.564%36%62%
20.557%43%54%
21.552%49%49%
22.545%55%42%
23.540%60%37%
24.537%63%35%

Sample: 5,336 matches

Games handicap

F. Maestrelli −3.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes32%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Over 21.5out · 16 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Francesco MaestrelliJack Loge
5Aces1
1Double faults2
68%First serves in49%
82%First-serve points won52%
77%Second-serve points won54%
4/6Break points converted0/0
8/8Service games held4/8
80%Service points won53%
47%Return points won20%
54Total points won33

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

F. MaestrelliTourJ. Loge
Service points won63%62%60%
Return points won36%38%43%
Service games held79%76%74%
Breaks of serve20%24%33%
Aces per service game0.590.19
Double faults per game0.280.25
Sets with a tie-break21%20%
Tie-breaks won15/302/5
Wins in straight sets61%50%
Matches in the sample6010

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Francesco Maestrelli

Jack Loge

Elo over the last year

Francesco MaestrelliJack Loge

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

F. MaestrelliJ. Loge
Hard court26–1958%4–267%
Clay2–1017%2–250%
Grass0–30%0–0

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Francesco Maestrelli

First match in this tournament.

Jack Loge

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