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WTA 125 SopoRound of 32claybest of three sets

Maria vs Giovannini 2:1: result and our tips

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Tatjana MariaWTA #68Elo 1803clay 1712
2:1final4:6 7:5 7:5
Luisina GiovanniniWTA #186Elo 1590clay 1614

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: MariaLost57%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Maria won the first set in 15 of the last 20 matches, Giovannini lost the first set in 12 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Other tips

  • Total Games: Under 22.5Lost57%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Under 22.5 games in recent matches: Maria 14 of 20, Giovannini 15 of 20 (tour average 63%)

Long shot
Set Betting: Maria 2-0Lost39%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Maria won 2-0 in 11 of the last 20 matches, Giovannini lost 0-2 in 9 of the last 20 matches (tour average 33%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Tatjana Maria66%
Luisina Giovannini34%

Elo: T. Maria 64% · L. Giovannini 36%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 T. Maria39%
2:1 T. Maria22%
2:1 L. Giovannini17%
2:0 L. Giovannini22%

First set

Tatjana Maria57%
Luisina Giovannini43%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 20.5 · 52%market (no margin): 50%

The 20.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.567%33%59%
19.560%40%51%
20.552%48%45%
21.548%52%41%
22.543%57%37%
23.539%62%33%
24.535%65%31%

Sample: 1,454 matches

Games handicap

T. Maria −3.547%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 20%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 20.5in · 34 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Tatjana MariaLuisina Giovannini
5Aces1
1Double faults3
72%First serves in75%
59%First-serve points won63%
55%Second-serve points won38%
6/14Break points converted5/11
12/17Service games held11/17
58%Service points won57%
43%Return points won42%
120Total points won117

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

T. MariaTourL. Giovannini
Service points won58%56%56%
Return points won44%44%45%
Service games held68%63%64%
Breaks of serve37%37%38%
Aces per service game0.400.17
Double faults per game0.240.27
Sets with a tie-break10%13%
Tie-breaks won7/131/6
Wins in straight sets85%64%
Matches in the sample6121

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Tatjana Maria

Luisina Giovannini

Elo over the last year

Tatjana MariaLuisina Giovannini

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

T. MariaL. Giovannini
Hard court6–1529%0–20%
Clay11–858%11–761%
Grass16–576%0–10%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Upcoming matches

See also