Skip to content
Challenger CaliChallenger 75Quarterfinalclaybest of three setsqualifying

Meligeni Alves vs Zarate 2:1: result and our tips

·

Felipe Meligeni AlvesATP #344Elo 1705clay 1725
2:1final6:2 3:6 7:5
Carlos Maria ZarateATP #340Elo 1503clay 1514

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 22.5Lost65%

Where the number comes from: market alone 63% → with the players' profiles 65%

Meligeni Alves: 14 matches in a row under 22.5 games; Under 22.5 games in recent matches: Meligeni Alves 17 of 20, Zarate 14 of 20 (tour average 60%)

Other tips

  • Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost68%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Meligeni Alves: 14 matches in a row without a deciding set; No third set in recent matches: Meligeni Alves 18 of 20, Zarate 14 of 20 (tour average 66%)

  • Match Winner: Meligeni AlvesWon80%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 80%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Meligeni Alves: 4 wins in a row; Meligeni Alves won 7 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Total Games: Under 18.5Lost40%

Where the number comes from: market alone 35% → with the players' profiles 40%

Meligeni Alves: 8 matches in a row under 18.5 games; Under 18.5 games in recent matches: Meligeni Alves 13 of 20, Zarate 10 of 20 (tour average 32%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Felipe Meligeni Alves81%
Carlos Maria Zarate19%

Elo: F. Meligeni Alves 77% · C. Zarate 23%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 F. Meligeni Alves58%
2:1 F. Meligeni Alves22%
2:1 C. Zarate9%
2:0 C. Zarate10%

First set

Felipe Meligeni Alves74%
Carlos Maria Zarate26%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes31%
no69%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 20.0 · 49%market (no margin): 49%

The 20.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
16.579%21%84%
17.569%31%76%
18.559%41%68%
19.551%49%59%
20.545%55%52%
21.540%60%47%
22.535%65%40%

Sample: 2,369 matches

Games handicap

F. Meligeni Alves −4.556%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes20%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 20.0out · 29 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Felipe Meligeni AlvesCarlos Maria Zarate
9Aces4
2Double faults5
59%First serves in55%
71%First-serve points won71%
51%Second-serve points won46%
4/14Break points converted2/14
12/14Service games held11/15
63%Service points won60%
40%Return points won37%
111Total points won106

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

F. Meligeni AlvesTourC. Zarate
Service points won62%62%59%
Return points won40%38%39%
Service games held76%76%70%
Breaks of serve28%24%26%
Aces per service game0.310.28
Double faults per game0.150.27
Sets with a tie-break13%12%
Tie-breaks won6/118/9
Wins in straight sets75%53%
Matches in the sample3833

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Carlos Maria Zarate

Elo over the last year

Felipe Meligeni AlvesCarlos Maria Zarate

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

F. Meligeni AlvesC. Zarate
Hard court2–340%1–150%
Clay18–1456%16–1552%
Grass0–10%0–0

Head to head

F. Meligeni Alves 1–0 C. Zarate

  • 29/09/26Winner: F. Meligeni Alves6:4 6:2

Road through the tournament

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Carlos Maria Zarate

See also