Challenger HelsinkiChallenger 175Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets
Mochizuki vs Giustino: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 1d 5hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Shintaro Mochizuki66%
Lorenzo Giustino34%
Elo: S. Mochizuki 57% · L. Giustino 43%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 S. Mochizuki44%
2:1 S. Mochizuki22%
2:1 L. Giustino15%
2:0 L. Giustino20%
First set
Shintaro Mochizuki62%
Lorenzo Giustino38%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 51%market (no margin): 48%
The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 22.7
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 70% | 30% | 71% |
| 19.5 | 62% | 38% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 56% | 44% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 50% | 51% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 43% | 57% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 39% | 61% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 37% | 64% | 35% |
Sample: 5,620 matches
Games handicap
S. Mochizuki −3.547%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes28%
tour average 32%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| S. Mochizuki | Tour | L. Giustino | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 58% | 62% | 60% |
| Return points won | 40% | 38% | 39% |
| Service games held | 67% | 76% | 74% |
| Breaks of serve | 28% | 24% | 26% |
| Aces per service game | 0.28 | 0.35 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.41 | 0.29 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 15% | 16% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 14/22 | 14/26 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 48% | 57% | |
| Matches in the sample | 58 | 68 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Shintaro Mochizuki
- 10/11/26LCalvin Hemery#284Challenger Orleans · R326:4 6:7 2:6
- 03/11/26LNicolai Budkov Kjaer#178Challenger Bratislava 2 · R323:6 2:6
- 26/10/26LFederico Cina#139Challenger Brest · R320:6 6:4 3:6
- 17/10/26LMattia Bellucci#62Challenger Jinan · SF2:6 6:7
- 16/10/26WYosuke Watanuki#237Challenger Jinan · QF4:6 6:2 7:6
- 15/10/26WDane Sweeny#116Challenger Jinan · R166:3 7:6
- 13/10/26WFacundo Diaz Acosta#66Challenger Jinan · R326:2 7:6
- 06/10/26LRoman Safiullin#74ATP Shanghai · Q22:6 3:6
- 05/10/26WTaro Daniel#172ATP Shanghai · Q12:6 6:2 6:2
- 28/09/26LJaime Faria#57ATP Tokyo · Q12:6 4:6
Lorenzo Giustino
- 13/11/26LMarvin Moeller#229Challenger Monastir · QF2:6 6:4 2:6
- 12/11/26WDali Blanch#321Challenger Monastir · R166:3 6:4
- 10/11/26WNicolas Tepmahc#621Challenger Monastir · R326:4 6:3
- 03/11/26LCarlo Alberto Caniato#323Challenger Taranto · R326:7 4:6
- 20/10/26LYanaki Milev#526Challenger Florence · R321:6 7:6 3:6
- 16/10/26LZsombor Piros#99Challenger Maia · QF3:6 6:1 6:7
- 14/10/26WMichael Vrbensky#737Challenger Maia · R167:5 7:5
- 13/10/26WAndrea Pellegrino#141Challenger Maia · R326:4 2:6 6:1
- 08/10/26LCarlos Sanchez Jover#328Challenger Palermo · R166:2 2:6 3:6
- 06/10/26WChristian Langmo#528Challenger Palermo · R326:4 6:1
Elo over the last year
Shintaro MochizukiLorenzo Giustino
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| S. Mochizuki | L. Giustino | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 17–2640% | 11–1052% |
| Clay | 0–30% | 24–2252% |
| Grass | 8–467% | 0–10% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
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