Mochizuki vs Sweeny: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 1d 0hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Elo: S. Mochizuki 62% · D. Sweeny 38%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 22.9
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 72% | 28% | 71% |
| 19.5 | 64% | 36% | 62% |
| 20.5 | 57% | 43% | 54% |
| 21.5 | 51% | 49% | 49% |
| 22.5 | 44% | 56% | 42% |
| 23.5 | 41% | 59% | 37% |
| 24.5 | 38% | 62% | 35% |
Sample: 5,643 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 32%
Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| S. Mochizuki | Tour | D. Sweeny | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 58% | 62% | 61% |
| Return points won | 40% | 38% | 40% |
| Service games held | 68% | 76% | 75% |
| Breaks of serve | 28% | 24% | 27% |
| Aces per service game | 0.30 | 0.26 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.40 | 0.28 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 12% | 19% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 12/19 | 19/32 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 54% | 51% | |
| Matches in the sample | 59 | 68 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Shintaro Mochizuki
- 13/10/26WFacundo Diaz Acosta#69Challenger Jinan · R326:2 7:6
- 06/10/26LRoman Safiullin#79ATP Shanghai · Q22:6 3:6
- 05/10/26WTaro Daniel#177ATP Shanghai · Q12:6 6:2 6:2
- 28/09/26LJaime Faria#60ATP Tokyo · Q12:6 4:6
- 24/09/26LMartin Damm Jr#104ATP Chengdu · R321:6 4:6
- 23/09/26WPavel Kotov#187ATP Chengdu · Q27:5 6:3
- 22/09/26WLinang XiaoATP Chengdu · Q17:5 4:6 7:5
- 15/09/26LPavel Kotov#187Challenger Guangzhou (Huangpu) · R326:7 1:6
- 31/08/26LJakub Menšík#15ATP US Open · R1281:6 4:6 5:7
- 28/08/26LFrancesco Passaro#229ATP US Open · Q34:6 2:6
Dane Sweeny
- 13/10/26WBernard Tomic#185Challenger Jinan · R322:2
- 06/10/26LKimmer Coppejans#232ATP Shanghai · Q23:6 2:6
- 05/10/26WTristan Schoolkate#155ATP Shanghai · Q13:6 6:3 6:2
- 02/10/26LAlex Bolt#170Challenger Jingshan · QF3:6 6:7
- 01/10/26WPetr Bar Biryukov#278Challenger Jingshan · R166:4 6:1
- 30/09/26WOmar Jasika#422Challenger Jingshan · R326:2 3:6 6:3
- 24/09/26LTaro Daniel#177ATP Hangzhou · R326:7 2:6
- 05/09/26LLuciano Darderi#21ATP US Open · R324:6 3:6 3:6
- 03/09/26WLorenzo Musetti#25ATP US Open · R643:6 6:1 6:2 6:2
- 01/09/26WCorentin Moutet#71ATP US Open · R1287:6 6:4 3:0
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| S. Mochizuki | D. Sweeny | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 18–2641% | 33–2458% |
| Clay | 0–30% | 0–20% |
| Grass | 8–467% | 6–367% |
Head to head
S. Mochizuki 1–0 D. Sweeny
- 01/08/26Winner: Shintaro Mochizuki1:6 7:6 6:3
Road through the tournament
Shintaro Mochizuki
- 13/10/26WFacundo Diaz Acosta#69Challenger Jinan · R326:2 7:6
Dane Sweeny
- 13/10/26WBernard Tomic#185Challenger Jinan · R322:2