Challenger BragaChallenger 75Quarterfinalclaybest of three setsqualifying

Moeller vs Dodig 0:2: result and our tips

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Marvin MoellerATP #239Elo 1778clay 1782
0:2final2:6 3:6
Matej DodigATP #174Elo 1838clay 1835

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Match Winner: DodigWon66%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 66%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Dodig won 8 of the last 10 matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Marvin Moeller34%
Matej Dodig66%

Elo: M. Moeller 42% · M. Dodig 58%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Moeller19%
2:1 M. Moeller15%
2:1 M. Dodig23%
2:0 M. Dodig43%

First set

Marvin Moeller38%
Matej Dodig62%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.5 · 53%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.1

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.574%26%68%
19.566%34%59%
20.558%42%52%
21.553%47%47%
22.546%54%40%
23.540%60%36%
24.538%62%34%

Sample: 4,421 matches

Games handicap

Matej Dodig −3.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes32%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Over 21.5out · 17 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Marvin MoellerMatej Dodig
1Aces4
3Double faults0
48%First serves in69%
64%First-serve points won83%
45%Second-serve points won44%
0/4Break points converted4/6
5/9Service games held8/8
54%Service points won71%
29%Return points won46%
47Total points won63

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. MoellerTourM. Dodig
Service points won62%62%65%
Return points won41%38%37%
Service games held78%76%82%
Breaks of serve30%24%22%
Aces per service game0.280.55
Double faults per game0.210.18
Sets with a tie-break15%18%
Tie-breaks won11/1516/28
Wins in straight sets60%51%
Matches in the sample4367

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Marvin Moeller

Matej Dodig

Elo over the last year

Marvin MoellerMatej Dodig

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. MoellerM. Dodig
Hard court6–460%15–1256%
Clay24–973%27–1171%
Grass0–01–150%

Head to head

M. Moeller 1–0 M. Dodig

  • 15/08/26Winner: Marvin Moeller6:2 6:4

Road through the tournament

Marvin Moeller

Matej Dodig