Challenger BragaChallenger 75Semifinalclaybest of three sets

Moller vs Gaubas 2:1: result and our tips

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Elmer MollerATP #181Elo 1733clay 1754
2:1final6:2 4:6 6:4
Vilius GaubasATP #141Elo 1807clay 1774

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 18.5Won67%

Where the number comes from: market alone 74% → with the players' profiles 67%

Moller: 6 matches in a row over 18.5 games

Long shot
Total Games: Over 25.5Won31%

Where the number comes from: market alone 35% → with the players' profiles 31%

Moller: 3 matches in a row over 25.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Elmer Moller46%
Vilius Gaubas54%

Elo: E. Moller 47% · V. Gaubas 53%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 E. Moller27%
2:1 E. Moller19%
2:1 V. Gaubas20%
2:0 V. Gaubas34%

First set

Elmer Moller46%
Vilius Gaubas54%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.0 · 54%market (no margin): 52%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.575%25%76%
18.567%34%68%
19.558%42%59%
20.552%48%52%
21.546%54%47%
22.542%59%40%
23.539%61%36%

Sample: 4,522 matches

Games handicap

Vilius Gaubas −1.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes21%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 22.0out · 28 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Elmer MollerVilius Gaubas
0Aces1
5Double faults2
66%First serves in55%
66%First-serve points won60%
52%Second-serve points won46%
5/10Break points converted3/13
11/14Service games held9/14
61%Service points won53%
47%Return points won39%
104Total points won91

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

E. MollerTourV. Gaubas
Service points won56%62%61%
Return points won43%38%38%
Service games held65%76%75%
Breaks of serve33%24%26%
Aces per service game0.200.30
Double faults per game0.470.18
Sets with a tie-break12%21%
Tie-breaks won10/1413/31
Wins in straight sets70%55%
Matches in the sample5059

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Elmer Moller

Vilius Gaubas

Elo over the last year

Elmer MollerVilius Gaubas

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

E. MollerV. Gaubas
Hard court2–625%7–464%
Clay25–1760%21–2348%
Grass0–03–175%

Head to head

E. Moller 1–0 V. Gaubas

  • 08/11/24Winner: Elmer Moller6:4 3:6 6:0

Road through the tournament

Elmer Moller

Vilius Gaubas

See also