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Challenger TaipeiChallenger 125Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Overbeck vs Tseng 2:0: result and our tips

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Carl Emil OverbeckATP #301Elo 1480hard 1480
2:0final7:6(5) 6:4
Chun Hsin TsengATP #230Elo 1730hard 1678

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: TsengLost62%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Overbeck lost the first set in 15 of the last 20 matches, Tseng won the first set in 15 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Other tips

  • Total Games: Under 25.5Won66%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Overbeck: 13 matches in a row under 25.5 games

  • Match Winner: TsengLost67%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 67%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Overbeck lost 8 of the last 10 matches; Tseng won 7 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Total Games: Under 20.5Lost42%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Overbeck: 6 matches in a row under 20.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Carl Emil Overbeck33%
Chun Hsin Tseng67%

Elo: C. Overbeck 24% · C. Tseng 76%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 C. Overbeck19%
2:1 C. Overbeck15%
2:1 C. Tseng22%
2:0 C. Tseng45%

First set

Carl Emil Overbeck38%
Chun Hsin Tseng62%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.5 · 53%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.574%26%71%
19.566%34%62%
20.558%42%54%
21.553%47%49%
22.546%54%42%
23.540%60%37%
24.538%62%35%

Sample: 5,358 matches

Games handicap

C. Tseng −3.548%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes34%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:0
  • Total games Over 21.5in · 23 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Carl Emil OverbeckChun Hsin Tseng
6Aces7
1Double faults6
57%First serves in56%
81%First-serve points won77%
67%Second-serve points won40%
2/8Break points converted1/2
10/11Service games held9/11
75%Service points won60%
40%Return points won25%
83Total points won71

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

C. OverbeckTourC. Tseng
Service points won65%62%61%
Return points won38%38%41%
Service games held80%76%73%
Breaks of serve24%24%29%
Aces per service game0.600.24
Double faults per game0.250.15
Sets with a tie-break18%14%
Tie-breaks won6/138/17
Wins in straight sets55%72%
Matches in the sample3256

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Carl Emil Overbeck

  • 27/10/26LYaroslav Demin#358Challenger Ningbo · R324:6 4:6
  • 29/09/26LHugo Grenier#394Challenger Porto 2 · R324:6 2:6
  • 07/09/26LAlafia Ayeni#434Challenger Istanbul 3 · R322:6 5:7
  • 01/09/26LLuca Potenza#566Challenger Manacor · Q23:6 3:6
  • 31/08/26WRyan Peniston#886Challenger Manacor · Q16:2 6:3
  • 17/05/26LEnrico Dalla Valle#309Challenger Cervia · Q11:6 1:6
  • 05/04/26LJoshua Charlton#851Challenger Wuning · Q13:6 6:7
  • 31/03/26LOgnjen Milic#377Challenger Miyazaki · R324:6 6:7
  • 30/03/26WTai Leonard Sach#514Challenger Miyazaki · Q26:1 4:6 6:2
  • 29/03/26WKokoro Isomura#722Challenger Miyazaki · Q16:3 1:0

Chun Hsin Tseng

  • 05/10/26LNicolas Mejia#115ATP Shanghai · Q14:6
  • 08/09/26LLuca Castelnuovo#444Challenger Shanghai · R326:3 6:7 2:6
  • 05/09/26LKasidit Samrej#409Challenger Zhangjiagang · SF3:6 6:7
  • 04/09/26WFajing Sun#287Challenger Zhangjiagang · QF6:3 6:3
  • 02/09/26WYosuke Watanuki#375Challenger Zhangjiagang · R167:5 6:3
  • 01/09/26WTianhui Zhang#800Challenger Zhangjiagang · R326:4 6:0
  • 22/08/26LJan Kumstat#194Challenger Prague · F7:5 3:6 0:6
  • 21/08/26WNorbert Gombos#372Challenger Prague · SF6:4 6:2
  • 20/08/26WOleksii Krutykh#442Challenger Prague · QF6:2 6:4
  • 19/08/26WJuan Bautista Torres#314Challenger Prague · R167:5 2:6 6:1

Elo over the last year

Carl Emil OverbeckChun Hsin Tseng

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

C. OverbeckC. Tseng
Hard court20–1263%8–850%
Clay0–10%21–1854%
Grass0–00–10%

Head to head

They have not met yet.