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Challenger Bratislava 2Challenger 125Round of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Pavlovic vs Shevchenko 2:1: result and our tips

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Luka PavlovicATP #203Elo 1694hard 1685
2:1final6:3 4:6 6:4
Alexander ShevchenkoATP #108Elo 1804hard 1775

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Luka Pavlovic35%
Alexander Shevchenko65%

Elo: L. Pavlovic 37% · A. Shevchenko 63%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 L. Pavlovic21%
2:1 L. Pavlovic15%
2:1 A. Shevchenko22%
2:0 A. Shevchenko42%

First set

Luka Pavlovic39%
Alexander Shevchenko61%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no63%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 52%market (no margin): 52%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.572%28%62%
20.564%36%54%
21.557%43%49%
22.552%49%42%
23.545%55%37%
24.540%60%35%
25.538%62%32%

Sample: 5,668 matches

Games handicap

A. Shevchenko −3.546%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes44%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 22.5in · 29 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Luka PavlovicAlexander Shevchenko
11Aces1
3Double faults2
65%First serves in73%
77%First-serve points won70%
46%Second-serve points won46%
3/5Break points converted2/5
13/15Service games held11/14
66%Service points won63%
37%Return points won34%
95Total points won86

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

L. PavlovicTourA. Shevchenko
Service points won64%62%63%
Return points won34%38%36%
Service games held81%76%79%
Breaks of serve19%24%19%
Aces per service game0.800.50
Double faults per game0.340.18
Sets with a tie-break20%22%
Tie-breaks won14/2715/32
Wins in straight sets61%52%
Matches in the sample5661

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Luka Pavlovic

  • 17/10/26LIlia Simakin#148ATP Almaty · Q13:6 6:3 6:7
  • 15/10/26LMattia Bellucci#66Challenger Jinan · R164:6 4:6
  • 14/10/26WTristan Schoolkate#143Challenger Jinan · R327:5 6:4
  • 12/10/26WKangyuan ShiChallenger Jinan · Q26:1 6:1
  • 11/10/26WThomas Fancutt#691Challenger Jinan · Q17:5 6:3
  • 05/10/26LIlia Simakin#148ATP Shanghai · Q16:4 4:6 1:6
  • 01/10/26LLloyd Harris#103Challenger Jingshan · R162:6 3:6
  • 29/09/26WAkira Santillan#332Challenger Jingshan · R326:2 6:4
  • 22/09/26LAlexandre Muller#146ATP Chengdu · Q14:6 7:6 3:6
  • 16/09/26LHunter Heck#602Challenger Phan Thiet 4 · R166:3 1:6 6:7

Alexander Shevchenko

Elo over the last year

Luka PavlovicAlexander Shevchenko

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

L. PavlovicA. Shevchenko
Hard court16–1453%15–1845%
Clay11–1346%14–1254%
Grass1–150%0–20%

Head to head

They have not met yet.