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WTA 125 CourmayeurRound of 32hard, indoorbest of three sets

Ristic vs Kubka 0:2: result and our tips

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Mia RisticWTA #184Elo 1588hard 1557
0:2final3:6 6:7(4)
Martyna KubkaWTA #145Elo 1593hard 1588

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Mia Ristic35%
Martyna Kubka65%

Elo: M. Ristic 46% · M. Kubka 55%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Ristic21%
2:1 M. Ristic15%
2:1 M. Kubka22%
2:0 M. Kubka42%

First set

Mia Ristic39%
Martyna Kubka61%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes37%
no64%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 54%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.2

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.576%24%70%
18.568%32%60%
19.559%41%53%
20.552%48%46%
21.546%54%41%
22.541%59%36%
23.537%63%33%

Sample: 2,298 matches

Games handicap

M. Kubka −3.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 21%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 21.5out · 22 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Mia RisticMartyna Kubka
10Aces15
3Double faults2
71%First serves in64%
71%First-serve points won87%
48%Second-serve points won68%
0/0Break points converted1/4
9/10Service games held11/11
64%Service points won80%
20%Return points won36%
58Total points won75

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. RisticTourM. Kubka
Service points won58%56%59%
Return points won44%44%42%
Service games held70%63%71%
Breaks of serve34%37%32%
Aces per service game0.150.37
Double faults per game0.110.23
Sets with a tie-break11%8%
Tie-breaks won5/102/3
Wins in straight sets73%33%
Matches in the sample3915

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Mia Ristic

Martyna Kubka

  • 17/10/26LDominika Salkova#128WTA 125 Rovereto · SF6:1 5:7 3:6
  • 16/10/26WGabriela Knutson#159WTA 125 Rovereto · QF7:5 4:2
  • 15/10/26WTeodora Kostovic#141WTA 125 Rovereto · R166:3 6:4
  • 13/10/26WAlina Charaeva#82WTA 125 Rovereto · R326:1 6:2
  • 30/09/26LLois Boisson#258WTA 125 Adana · R163:6 2:6
  • 28/09/26WKsenia Efremova#619WTA 125 Adana · R326:3 4:6 6:4
  • 22/09/26LBerfu Cengiz#245WTA 125 Ankara · R322:6 4:6
  • 28/08/26LKristina Liutova#103WTA US Open · Q34:6 0:6
  • 26/08/26WMarina Bassols Ribera#125WTA US Open · Q26:3 6:2
  • 25/08/26WAnnika Penickova#472WTA US Open · Q16:7 6:4 6:2

Elo over the last year

Mia RisticMartyna Kubka

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. RisticM. Kubka
Hard court2–250%9–660%
Clay20–1557%0–0

Head to head

They have not met yet.