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ATP ParisMasters 1000Round of 64hard, indoorbest of three sets

Rublev vs Etcheverry 1:2: result and our tips

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Andrey RublevATP #22Elo 2003hard 1962
1:2final4:6 7:6(4) 6:7(3)
Tomás Martín EtcheverryATP #31Elo 1870hard 1828

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: RublevLost65%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Rublev won the first set in 12 of the last 20 matches, Etcheverry lost the first set in 13 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Other tips

  • Total Games: Over 19.5Won75%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 69% → with the players' profiles 75%

    Rublev: 9 matches in a row over 19.5 games

  • Match Winner: RublevLost70%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 70%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Etcheverry lost 7 of the last 10 matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Andrey Rublev70%
Tomás Martín Etcheverry30%

Elo: A. Rublev 68% · T. Etcheverry 32%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Rublev46%
2:1 A. Rublev23%
2:1 T. Etcheverry13%
2:0 T. Etcheverry17%

First set

Andrey Rublev65%
Tomás Martín Etcheverry35%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no64%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 53%market (no margin): 50%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.575%25%68%
20.567%33%60%
21.560%40%54%
22.553%47%46%
23.545%55%40%
24.540%60%38%
25.538%62%35%

Sample: 4,877 matches

Games handicap

A. Rublev −3.548%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes49%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Over 22.5in · 36 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Andrey RublevTomás Martín Etcheverry
—Aces—
—Double faults—
—First serves in—
—First-serve points won—
—Second-serve points won—
0/0Break points converted0/0
0/0Service games held0/0
—Service points won—
—Return points won—
0Total points won0

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. RublevTourT. Etcheverry
Service points won66%62%66%
Return points won37%38%35%
Service games held83%76%82%
Breaks of serve22%24%17%
Aces per service game0.590.50
Double faults per game0.210.14
Sets with a tie-break20%23%
Tie-breaks won16/3017/33
Wins in straight sets58%48%
Matches in the sample5555

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Andrey Rublev

Tomás Martín Etcheverry

Elo over the last year

Andrey RublevTomás Martín Etcheverry

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. RublevT. Etcheverry
Hard court17–1455%9–1538%
Clay16–673%18–1064%
Grass0–20%0–30%

Head to head

A. Rublev 1–1 T. Etcheverry

  • 19/06/25Winner: T. Etcheverry3:6 7:6 6:7
  • 08/08/24Winner: A. Rublev7:6 6:2

See also