Challenger LisbonChallenger 125Qualifying round 2claybest of three setsqualifying

Sanchez Quilez vs Wehnelt 2:1: result and our tips

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Alejo Sanchez QuilezATP #323Elo 1713clay 1716
2:1final7:6(2) 3:6 6:2
Kai WehneltATP #631Elo 1597clay 1604

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 22.5Lost61%

Where the number comes from: market alone 59% → with the players' profiles 61%

Sanchez Quilez: 5 matches in a row under 22.5 games

Long shot
Total Games: Under 20.5Lost49%

Where the number comes from: market alone 47% → with the players' profiles 49%

Sanchez Quilez: 5 matches in a row under 20.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Alejo Sanchez Quilez74%
Kai Wehnelt26%

Elo: A. Sanchez Quilez 66% · K. Wehnelt 35%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Sanchez Quilez51%
2:1 A. Sanchez Quilez23%
2:1 K. Wehnelt13%
2:0 K. Wehnelt14%

First set

Alejo Sanchez Quilez68%
Kai Wehnelt33%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes35%
no65%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 55%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.1

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.575%25%76%
18.566%34%68%
19.558%42%59%
20.551%49%52%
21.545%55%47%
22.539%61%40%
23.536%64%36%

Sample: 3,314 matches

Games handicap

Alejo Sanchez Quilez −4.547%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 27%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 21.5out · 30 games
  • Games handicapnot covered

Match stats

Alejo Sanchez QuilezKai Wehnelt
9Aces14
2Double faults2
61%First serves in61%
73%First-serve points won74%
55%Second-serve points won50%
3/7Break points converted2/8
12/14Service games held12/15
66%Service points won64%
36%Return points won34%
98Total points won91

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. Sanchez QuilezTourK. Wehnelt
Service points won59%62%63%
Return points won42%38%39%
Service games held70%76%77%
Breaks of serve32%24%25%
Aces per service game0.180.46
Double faults per game0.150.29
Sets with a tie-break9%17%
Tie-breaks won4/114/11
Wins in straight sets70%60%
Matches in the sample5427

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Alejo Sanchez Quilez

Kai Wehnelt

Elo over the last year

Alejo Sanchez QuilezKai Wehnelt

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. Sanchez QuilezK. Wehnelt
Hard court9–853%0–10%
Clay21–1657%15–1158%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Alejo Sanchez Quilez

Kai Wehnelt