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Challenger CharlottesvilleChallenger 75Qualifying round 1hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Sheehy vs Boulais 1:2: result and our tips

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Joshua SheehyATP #763Elo 1325hard 1338
1:2final6:1 2:6 0:6
Justin BoulaisATP #439Elo 1517hard 1513

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Match Winner: BoulaisWon67%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 67%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Sheehy lost 9 of the last 10 matches

Other tips

  • Total Games: Over 20.5Won60%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 58% → with the players' profiles 60%

    Over 20.5 games in recent matches: Sheehy 12 of 20, Boulais 14 of 20 (tour average 54%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Joshua Sheehy32%
Justin Boulais68%

Elo: J. Sheehy 27% · J. Boulais 73%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 J. Sheehy18%
2:1 J. Sheehy14%
2:1 J. Boulais22%
2:0 J. Boulais45%

First set

Joshua Sheehy37%
Justin Boulais63%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes36%
no64%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 21.5 · 54%market (no margin): 52%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.3

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.567%33%62%
20.559%41%54%
21.554%46%49%
22.547%53%42%
23.541%59%37%
24.538%62%35%
25.535%65%32%

Sample: 5,165 matches

Games handicap

J. Boulais −3.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes37%

tour average 32%

Bookmakers offer no tie-break bet on this match.

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Over 21.5out · 21 games
  • Games handicapcovered

Match stats

Joshua SheehyJustin Boulais
5Aces4
5Double faults4
55%First serves in63%
54%First-serve points won58%
43%Second-serve points won49%
3/14Break points converted5/12
5/10Service games held8/11
49%Service points won55%
45%Return points won51%
76Total points won86

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

J. SheehyTourJ. Boulais
Service points won63%62%62%
Return points won36%38%39%
Service games held80%76%76%
Breaks of serve19%24%25%
Aces per service game0.650.37
Double faults per game0.400.29
Sets with a tie-break23%14%
Tie-breaks won8/156/14
Wins in straight sets64%73%
Matches in the sample2842

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Joshua Sheehy

  • 18/10/26LAidan McHugh#490Challenger Fort Worth · Q12:6 2:6
  • 04/10/26LIvan Marrero Curbelo#386Challenger Villena · Q12:6 6:2 6:7
  • 13/09/26LPatrick Zahraj#540Challenger Rennes · Q15:7 3:6
  • 24/08/26LEvan Zhu#467Challenger Kingston 2 · Q25:7 0:6
  • 23/08/26WLuis BrittoChallenger Kingston 2 · Q16:2
  • 02/08/26LAbdullah Shelbayh#311Challenger Lexington · Q13:6 6:2 6:7
  • 27/07/26LRenta Tokuda#909Challenger Vancouver · Q16:4 6:7 5:7
  • 19/07/26LEdward Winter#404Challenger Winnipeg · Q16:4 3:6 0:6
  • 13/07/26LChristian Langmo#508Challenger Lincoln · Q23:6 7:6 5:7
  • 12/07/26WKelly GieseChallenger Lincoln · Q16:3 6:2

Justin Boulais

  • 25/10/26LSebastian Dominko#456Challenger Sioux Falls · Q17:5 3:6 4:6
  • 27/09/26LAlexandre Reco#811Challenger Mouilleron-le-Captif · Q14:6 4:6
  • 22/09/26LHarold Mayot#220Challenger Saint Tropez · R324:6 6:2 6:7
  • 21/09/26LMatteo Martineau#244Challenger Saint Tropez · Q23:6 1:6
  • 20/09/26WMickael Kaouk#937Challenger Saint Tropez · Q15:7 6:3 6:2
  • 14/09/26LMatisse Bobichon#487Challenger Rennes · Q26:7 3:6
  • 13/09/26WTheo ArribageChallenger Rennes · Q17:6 6:2
  • 07/09/26LMatisse Bobichon#487Challenger Cassis · Q26:3 6:7 3:6
  • 06/09/26WMatis RocheChallenger Cassis · Q16:0 6:3
  • 19/08/26LBenjamin Bonzi#95Challenger Quebec City · R326:7 3:6

Elo over the last year

Joshua SheehyJustin Boulais

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

J. SheehyJ. Boulais
Hard court10–1343%22–2250%
Clay1–420%0–0

Head to head

J. Sheehy 0–1 J. Boulais

  • 30/07/23Winner: J. Boulais2:6 5:7