ATP Almaty250Qualifying round 2hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Shevchenko vs Sakellaridis 0:2: result and our tips

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Alexander ShevchenkoATP #108Elo 1818hard 1792
0:2final6:7(4) 4:6
Stefanos SakellaridisATP #133Elo 1779hard 1751

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Match Winner: ShevchenkoLost65%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 65%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Sakellaridis lost 7 of the last 10 matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Alexander Shevchenko63%
Stefanos Sakellaridis37%

Elo: A. Shevchenko 56% · S. Sakellaridis 44%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Shevchenko39%
2:1 A. Shevchenko22%
2:1 S. Sakellaridis17%
2:0 S. Sakellaridis22%

First set

Alexander Shevchenko59%
Stefanos Sakellaridis41%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes39%
no61%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.5 · 53%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.4

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.575%25%68%
20.567%33%60%
21.560%40%54%
22.553%47%46%
23.546%54%39%
24.542%58%38%
25.539%61%35%

Sample: 5,693 matches

Games handicap

Alexander Shevchenko −2.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes46%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 0:2
  • Total games Over 22.5in · 23 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Alexander ShevchenkoStefanos Sakellaridis
6Aces9
0Double faults2
65%First serves in67%
75%First-serve points won80%
64%Second-serve points won64%
1/2Break points converted2/4
9/11Service games held10/11
71%Service points won74%
26%Return points won29%
61Total points won67

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. ShevchenkoTourS. Sakellaridis
Service points won63%62%65%
Return points won36%38%37%
Service games held78%76%79%
Breaks of serve19%24%24%
Aces per service game0.500.59
Double faults per game0.190.24
Sets with a tie-break22%17%
Tie-breaks won16/3315/26
Wins in straight sets52%62%
Matches in the sample6267

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Alexander Shevchenko

Stefanos Sakellaridis

Elo over the last year

Alexander ShevchenkoStefanos Sakellaridis

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. ShevchenkoS. Sakellaridis
Hard court15–1944%20–1361%
Clay14–1254%18–967%
Grass0–20%4–357%

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Alexander Shevchenko

Stefanos Sakellaridis