WTA OsakaWTA 250Round of 16hardbest of three sets
Stoiana vs Uchijima: prediction and tips
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Our tips
Tip in 1h 5mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon on match day, for earlier ones 3 hours before the order-of-play time.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Mary Stoiana62%
Moyuka Uchijima38%
Elo: M. Stoiana 64% · M. Uchijima 36%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 M. Stoiana38%
2:1 M. Stoiana22%
2:1 M. Uchijima16%
2:0 M. Uchijima24%
First set
Mary Stoiana57%
Moyuka Uchijima43%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 51%market (no margin): 51%
The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 22.5
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.5 | 69% | 31% | 64% |
| 19.5 | 61% | 39% | 56% |
| 20.5 | 55% | 45% | 49% |
| 21.5 | 49% | 51% | 44% |
| 22.5 | 43% | 57% | 38% |
| 23.5 | 38% | 62% | 34% |
| 24.5 | 36% | 64% | 32% |
Sample: 2,381 matches
Games handicap
Mary Stoiana −2.551%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes25%
tour average 22%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| M. Stoiana | Tour | M. Uchijima | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 57% | 56% | 55% |
| Return points won | 45% | 44% | 45% |
| Service games held | 66% | 63% | 63% |
| Breaks of serve | 37% | 37% | 38% |
| Aces per service game | 0.14 | 0.21 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.27 | 0.37 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 13% | 11% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 12/17 | 7/14 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 55% | 67% | |
| Matches in the sample | 51 | 53 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Mary Stoiana
- 20/10/26WOleksandra Oliynykova#62WTA Osaka · R326:2 6:3
- 18/10/26WSayaka Ishii#589WTA Osaka · Q26:4 7:5
- 17/10/26WRinko Matsuda#434WTA Osaka · Q16:3 7:6
- 18/09/26LPaula Badosa#61WTA Sao Paulo · QF4:6 2:6
- 17/09/26WDominika Salkova#112WTA Sao Paulo · R167:6 6:1
- 16/09/26WClaire Liu#95WTA Sao Paulo · R326:3 7:5
- 10/09/26LJulia Riera#141WTA 125 Barranquilla · R166:4 6:7 3:6
- 09/09/26WJazmin Ortenzi#150WTA 125 Barranquilla · R326:3 6:2
- 02/09/26LAlexandra Eala#20WTA US Open · R1281:6 2:6
- 28/08/26WYue Yuan#173WTA US Open · Q36:3 4:6 6:4
Moyuka Uchijima
- 20/10/26WEna Shibahara#492WTA Osaka · R326:4 6:7 6:3
- 10/10/26LMagdalena Fręch#47WTA Wuhan · Q14:6 1:4
- 06/10/26LZhuoxuan Bai#203WTA 125 Suzhou · R326:4 3:6 3:6
- 21/09/26LLanlana Tararudee#53WTA Seoul · R324:6 7:6 2:6
- 26/08/26LLucie Havlickova#181WTA US Open · Q22:6 6:2 6:7
- 25/08/26WPolona Hercog#210WTA US Open · Q16:3 6:3
- 12/08/26LHarriet Dart#117WTA Cincinnati · Q13:6 0:6
- 04/08/26LAryna Sabalenka#2WTA Toronto · R643:6 3:6
- 02/08/26WCristina Bucsa#38WTA Toronto · R1286:3 6:4
- 01/08/26WHimeno Sakatsume#115WTA Toronto · Q16:2 6:4
Elo over the last year
Mary StoianaMoyuka Uchijima
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| M. Stoiana | M. Uchijima | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 19–1359% | 12–1446% |
| Clay | 4–357% | 15–1158% |
| Grass | 8–467% | 0–10% |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
Road through the tournament
Mary Stoiana
- 17/10/26WRinko Matsuda#434WTA Osaka · Q16:3 7:6
- 18/10/26WSayaka Ishii#589WTA Osaka · Q26:4 7:5
- 20/10/26WOleksandra Oliynykova#62WTA Osaka · R326:2 6:3
Moyuka Uchijima
- 20/10/26WEna Shibahara#492WTA Osaka · R326:4 6:7 6:3