Challenger Wuning 3Challenger 50Quarterfinalhardbest of three setsqualifying

Sun vs Kachmazov 0:2: result and our tips

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Fajing SunATP #303Elo 1647hard 1643
0:2final3:6 4:6
Alibek KachmazovATP #525Elo 1634hard 1640

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 21.5Lost56%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 21.5 games in recent matches: Sun 12 of 20, Kachmazov 7 of 10 (tour average 49%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Fajing Sun41%
Alibek Kachmazov59%

Elo: F. Sun 51% · A. Kachmazov 50%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 F. Sun24%
2:1 F. Sun17%
2:1 A. Kachmazov21%
2:0 A. Kachmazov38%

First set

Fajing Sun43%
Alibek Kachmazov57%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 22.5 · 51%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.7

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.570%30%62%
20.562%38%54%
21.556%44%49%
22.549%51%42%
23.543%57%37%
24.540%60%35%
25.537%63%32%

Sample: 5,779 matches

Games handicap

Alibek Kachmazov −2.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes39%

tour average 32%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 22.5in · 19 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Fajing SunAlibek Kachmazov
0Aces16
2Double faults4
64%First serves in53%
71%First-serve points won83%
38%Second-serve points won49%
0/8Break points converted2/9
7/9Service games held10/10
59%Service points won67%
33%Return points won41%
65Total points won79

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

F. SunTourA. Kachmazov
Service points won64%62%64%
Return points won38%38%38%
Service games held78%76%79%
Breaks of serve25%24%24%
Aces per service game0.320.54
Double faults per game0.150.19
Sets with a tie-break16%36%
Tie-breaks won8/226/9
Wins in straight sets61%80%
Matches in the sample5910

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Fajing Sun

Alibek Kachmazov

  • 08/10/26WEvan Zhu#479Challenger Wuning 3 · R167:6 7:6
  • 06/10/26WCharles Broom#268Challenger Wuning 3 · R324:6 7:6 6:4
  • 05/10/26WGrigoriy Lomakin#865Challenger Wuning 3 · Q26:1 6:1
  • 04/10/26WYan Lang ChenChallenger Wuning 3 · Q16:1 6:2
  • 07/09/26LGabriel Ghetu#570Challenger Istanbul 3 · Q26:7 6:2 4:6
  • 06/09/26WLouis Wessels#435Challenger Istanbul 3 · Q16:3 7:6
  • 09/08/26LColin Sinclair#485Challenger Astana · Q16:7 7:6 2:6
  • 08/02/26LAlejo Sanchez Quilez#375Challenger Tenerife 2 · Q16:0 4:6 2:6
  • 02/02/26LGabriele Piraino#392Challenger Tenerife · R326:7 7:6 2:6
  • 26/01/26LYanki Erel#300Challenger Manama · Q14:6 3:6

Elo over the last year

Fajing SunAlibek Kachmazov

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

F. SunA. Kachmazov
Hard court28–2454%5–550%
Clay3–350%0–0
Grass0–10%0–0

Head to head

F. Sun 0–1 A. Kachmazov

  • 29/04/25Winner: Alibek Kachmazov4:6 6:7

Road through the tournament

Fajing Sun

Alibek Kachmazov

  • 04/10/26WYan Lang ChenChallenger Wuning 3 · Q16:1 6:2
  • 05/10/26WGrigoriy Lomakin#865Challenger Wuning 3 · Q26:1 6:1
  • 06/10/26WCharles Broom#268Challenger Wuning 3 · R324:6 7:6 6:4
  • 08/10/26WEvan Zhu#479Challenger Wuning 3 · R167:6 7:6

See also