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WTA GuangzhouWTA 250Quarterfinalhardbest of three setsqualifying

Tagger vs Shi 2:1: result and our tips

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Lilli TaggerWTA #53Elo 1863hard 1857
2:1final6:4 3:6 7:5
Han ShiWTA #162Elo 1774hard 1780

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Under 22.5Lost62%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Shi: 5 matches in a row under 22.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Lilli Tagger73%
Han Shi27%

Elo: L. Tagger 61% · H. Shi 39%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 L. Tagger50%
2:1 L. Tagger21%
2:1 H. Shi14%
2:0 H. Shi15%

First set

Lilli Tagger68%
Han Shi32%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes34%
no66%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.0 · 49%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.0

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.575%25%72%
18.566%34%64%
19.558%42%56%
20.551%49%49%
21.545%55%44%
22.539%61%38%
23.535%65%34%

Sample: 1,831 matches

Games handicap

L. Tagger −4.547%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes23%

tour average 22%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Under 21.0out · 31 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Lilli TaggerHan Shi
6Aces6
2Double faults6
69%First serves in58%
64%First-serve points won63%
46%Second-serve points won43%
6/12Break points converted5/9
10/15Service games held10/16
58%Service points won55%
46%Return points won42%
108Total points won104

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

L. TaggerTourH. Shi
Service points won60%56%58%
Return points won43%44%45%
Service games held73%63%68%
Breaks of serve33%37%39%
Aces per service game0.390.31
Double faults per game0.250.33
Sets with a tie-break12%10%
Tie-breaks won7/153/5
Wins in straight sets74%57%
Matches in the sample5321

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Lilli Tagger

Han Shi

Elo over the last year

Lilli TaggerHan Shi

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

L. TaggerH. Shi
Hard court25–1366%14–670%
Clay6–746%0–10%
Grass0–20%0–0

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Lilli Tagger

Han Shi