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ATP ParisMasters 1000Qualifying round 1hard, indoorbest of three setsqualifying

Tirante vs Svajda 2:1: result and our tips

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Thiago Agustin TiranteATP #53Elo 1939hard 1862
2:1final3:6 6:1 6:4
Zachary SvajdaATP #75Elo 1867hard 1840

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Sets: Under 2.5Lost60%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

No third set in recent matches: Tirante 13 of 20, Svajda 16 of 20 (tour average 64%)

Long shot
Total Games: Under 21.5Lost37%

Where the number comes from: market alone 40% → with the players' profiles 37%

Under 21.5 games in recent matches: Tirante 11 of 20, Svajda 12 of 20 (tour average 46%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Thiago Agustin Tirante45%
Zachary Svajda55%

Elo: T. Tirante 53% · Z. Svajda 47%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 T. Tirante26%
2:1 T. Tirante20%
2:1 Z. Svajda21%
2:0 Z. Svajda34%

First set

Thiago Agustin Tirante46%
Zachary Svajda54%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no60%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 23.0 · 49%market (no margin): 49%

The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.571%30%60%
21.563%37%54%
22.557%43%46%
23.549%51%40%
24.545%55%38%
25.542%58%35%
26.538%63%30%

Sample: 5,639 matches

Games handicap

Z. Svajda −1.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes49%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 23.0in · 26 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Thiago Agustin TiranteZachary Svajda
23Aces7
2Double faults2
62%First serves in53%
93%First-serve points won62%
48%Second-serve points won55%
3/10Break points converted1/2
12/13Service games held10/13
76%Service points won59%
42%Return points won24%
89Total points won71

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

T. TiranteTourZ. Svajda
Service points won66%62%65%
Return points won36%38%37%
Service games held82%76%81%
Breaks of serve20%24%23%
Aces per service game0.680.54
Double faults per game0.220.20
Sets with a tie-break17%18%
Tie-breaks won12/2310/25
Wins in straight sets55%62%
Matches in the sample5553

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Zachary Svajda

Elo over the last year

Thiago Agustin TiranteZachary Svajda

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

T. TiranteZ. Svajda
Hard court15–1550%21–1460%
Clay15–768%4–640%
Grass1–233%4–450%

Head to head

They have not met yet.