Van Assche vs Musetti 1:2: result and our tips
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Our tips
Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.
Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data
Van Assche lost the first set in 10 of the last 20 matches, Musetti won the first set in 14 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.
Winner
Elo: L. Van Assche 35% · L. Musetti 65%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
First set
Total games
The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 23.6
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.5 | 69% | 31% | 68% |
| 20.5 | 61% | 39% | 60% |
| 21.5 | 56% | 44% | 54% |
| 22.5 | 47% | 53% | 46% |
| 23.5 | 40% | 60% | 39% |
| 24.5 | 39% | 61% | 38% |
| 25.5 | 35% | 65% | 35% |
Sample: 5,133 matches
Games handicap
Tie-break in the match
tour average 39%
How the forecast did
- Favouritefavourite won
- Most likely set scorewas 1:2
- Total games Over 22.0in · 36 games
- Games handicapnot covered
- Tie-breaktie-break played
Match stats
| Luca Van Assche | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Aces | 6 |
| 2 | Double faults | 1 |
| 66% | First serves in | 66% |
| 79% | First-serve points won | 72% |
| 42% | Second-serve points won | 63% |
| 1/4 | Break points converted | 2/8 |
| 15/17 | Service games held | 16/17 |
| 66% | Service points won | 69% |
| 31% | Return points won | 34% |
| 122 | Total points won | 126 |
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| L. Van Assche | Tour | L. Musetti | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 62% | 62% | 64% |
| Return points won | 41% | 38% | 38% |
| Service games held | 77% | 76% | 82% |
| Breaks of serve | 30% | 24% | 25% |
| Aces per service game | 0.33 | 0.38 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.31 | 0.21 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 12% | 11% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 10/22 | 5/12 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 56% | 68% | |
| Matches in the sample | 74 | 45 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Luca Van Assche
- 22/10/26WValentin Vacherot#31ATP Lyon · R162:6 6:4 6:4
- 20/10/26WClement Tabur#161ATP Lyon · R327:6 6:3
- 08/10/26LYunchaokete Bu#92ATP Shanghai · R1286:7 3:6
- 30/09/26LArthur Fils#8ATP Tokyo · R323:6 2:6
- 02/09/26LDenis Shapovalov#52ATP US Open · R640:6 4:6 6:7
- 30/08/26WCameron Norrie#41ATP US Open · R1286:7 6:2 6:2 6:3
- 25/08/26LAleksandar Kovacevic#84ATP Winston Salem · R321:6 6:7
- 23/08/26WStefanos Sakellaridis#132Challenger Quebec City · F6:1 6:4
- 22/08/26WHugo Gaston#110Challenger Quebec City · SF6:4 6:4
- 21/08/26WBenjamin Bonzi#99Challenger Quebec City · QF7:6 7:5
Lorenzo Musetti
- 21/10/26WMoise Kouame#176ATP Lyon · R166:4 6:4
- 19/10/26WMatteo Arnaldi#36ATP Lyon · R326:1 6:4
- 09/10/26LYi Zhou#256ATP Shanghai · R646:7 6:3 6:7
- 03/09/26LDane Sweeny#112ATP US Open · R646:3 1:6 2:6 2:6
- 01/09/26WArthur Fery#35ATP US Open · R1286:3 6:3 7:5
- 21/08/26LFrances Tiafoe#9ATP Cincinnati · QF6:7 5:7
- 20/08/26WJaime Faria#57ATP Cincinnati · R167:5 6:2
- 18/08/26WMichael Zheng#101ATP Cincinnati · R326:1 6:3
- 16/08/26WDaniel Altmaier#60ATP Cincinnati · R646:4 6:2
- 06/08/26LRafael Jodar#11ATP Montreal · R324:6 3:6
Elo over the last year
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| L. Van Assche | L. Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 30–1567% | 22–1363% |
| Clay | 18–1064% | 6–460% |
| Grass | 0–10% | 0–0 |
Head to head
L. Van Assche 1–0 L. Musetti
- 17/01/24Winner: L. Van Assche6:3 3:6 6:7 6:3 6:0
Road through the tournament
Luca Van Assche
- 20/10/26WClement Tabur#161ATP Lyon · R327:6 6:3
- 22/10/26WValentin Vacherot#31ATP Lyon · R162:6 6:4 6:4
Lorenzo Musetti
- 19/10/26WMatteo Arnaldi#36ATP Lyon · R326:1 6:4
- 21/10/26WMoise Kouame#176ATP Lyon · R166:4 6:4