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ATP ParisMasters 1000Round of 64hard, indoorbest of three sets

Van Assche vs Navone 2:0: result and our tips

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Luca Van AsscheATP #47Elo 1940hard 1905
2:0final6:3 7:5
Mariano NavoneATP #48Elo 1935hard 1867

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 20.5Won62%

Where the number comes from: market alone 64% → with the players' profiles 62%

Navone: 6 matches in a row over 20.5 games

Other tips

  • Match Winner: Van AsscheWon61%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 61%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Navone lost 7 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Tie-break in Match: YesLost37%

Where the number comes from: market alone 41% → with the players' profiles 37%

A tie-break in recent matches: Van Assche 10 of 20, Navone 11 of 20 (tour average 39%); Navone: 3 matches in a row with a tie-break

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Luca Van Assche61%
Mariano Navone40%

Elo: L. Van Assche 56% · M. Navone 45%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 L. Van Assche38%
2:1 L. Van Assche22%
2:1 M. Navone18%
2:0 M. Navone23%

First set

Luca Van Assche57%
Mariano Navone43%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes40%
no60%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 23.0 · 52%market (no margin): 51%

The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.569%31%68%
20.562%38%60%
21.556%44%54%
22.548%52%46%
23.543%57%40%
24.541%59%38%
25.537%63%35%

Sample: 6,015 matches

Games handicap

L. Van Assche −2.548%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes37%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 2:0
  • Total games Under 23.0in · 21 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Luca Van AsscheMariano Navone
7Aces5
3Double faults3
62%First serves in76%
86%First-serve points won68%
46%Second-serve points won20%
3/6Break points converted0/3
10/10Service games held8/11
71%Service points won56%
44%Return points won29%
84Total points won66

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

L. Van AsscheTourM. Navone
Service points won62%62%61%
Return points won41%38%40%
Service games held77%76%75%
Breaks of serve29%24%28%
Aces per service game0.330.16
Double faults per game0.310.19
Sets with a tie-break13%15%
Tie-breaks won11/2312/23
Wins in straight sets57%59%
Matches in the sample7460

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Luca Van Assche

Mariano Navone

Elo over the last year

Luca Van AsscheMariano Navone

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

L. Van AsscheM. Navone
Hard court29–1664%12–1348%
Clay18–1064%20–1361%
Grass0–10%0–20%

Head to head

They have not met yet.