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Challenger GuayaquilChallenger 75Round of 32claybest of three sets

Villanueva vs Midon 0:2: result and our tips

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Gonzalo VillanuevaATP #325Elo 1624clay 1633
0:2final3:6 3:6
Lautaro MidonATP #185Elo 1752clay 1770

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Match Winner: MidonWon68%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 68%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Villanueva lost 7 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
Total Games: Over 24.5Lost33%

Where the number comes from: market alone 37% → with the players' profiles 33%

Villanueva: 3 matches in a row over 24.5 games; Over 24.5 games in recent matches: Villanueva 9 of 20, Midon 9 of 20 (tour average 34%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Gonzalo Villanueva33%
Lautaro Midon67%

Elo: G. Villanueva 31% · L. Midon 69%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 G. Villanueva18%
2:1 G. Villanueva15%
2:1 L. Midon23%
2:0 L. Midon44%

First set

Gonzalo Villanueva37%
Lautaro Midon63%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 56%market (no margin): 51%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.572%28%76%
18.564%36%68%
19.557%43%59%
20.551%49%52%
21.544%56%46%
22.540%61%40%
23.537%63%36%

Sample: 4,344 matches

Games handicap

L. Midon −3.550%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes20%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Under 21.5in · 18 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Gonzalo VillanuevaLautaro Midon
—Aces—
4Double faults1
71%First serves in35%
59%First-serve points won72%
33%Second-serve points won68%
1/2Break points converted4/15
5/9Service games held8/9
51%Service points won69%
31%Return points won49%
53Total points won71

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

G. VillanuevaTourL. Midon
Service points won58%62%59%
Return points won43%38%42%
Service games held69%76%69%
Breaks of serve34%24%32%
Aces per service game0.230.30
Double faults per game0.200.19
Sets with a tie-break9%12%
Tie-breaks won7/1312/19
Wins in straight sets58%53%
Matches in the sample5866

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Gonzalo Villanueva

Lautaro Midon

Elo over the last year

Gonzalo VillanuevaLautaro Midon

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

G. VillanuevaL. Midon
Hard court2–250%6–367%
Clay29–2554%34–2261%
Grass0–00–10%

Head to head

G. Villanueva 0–1 L. Midon

  • 18/03/26Winner: L. Midon5:7 3:6