ATP ShanghaiMasters 1000Round of 16hardbest of three sets

Zverev vs Bublik 2:1: result and our tips

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Alexander ZverevATP #2Elo 2268hard 2223
2:1final7:6(6) 4:6 7:6(1)
Alexander BublikATP #22Elo 2061hard 2030

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
1st Set Winner: ZverevWon67%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Zverev: 13 matches in a row winning the first set; Zverev won the first set in 19 of the last 20 matches, Bublik lost the first set in 10 of the last 20 matches (tour average 50%)

Other tips

  • Tie-break in Match: YesWon56%

    Where the number comes from: market alone 40% → with the players' profiles 56%

    A tie-break in recent matches: Zverev 17 of 20, Bublik 14 of 20 (tour average 38%); Bublik: 4 matches in a row with a tie-break

  • Match Winner: ZverevWon72%

    Where the number comes from: chance from the market (bookmakers 72%); the pick and the reasoning come from our data

    Zverev won 9 of the last 10 matches

Long shot
1st Set Winner: BublikLost33%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Bublik won the first set in 4 of their 4 head-to-head matches

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Alexander Zverev73%
Alexander Bublik27%

Elo: A. Zverev 75% · A. Bublik 25%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 A. Zverev50%
2:1 A. Zverev23%
2:1 A. Bublik13%
2:0 A. Bublik15%

First set

Alexander Zverev68%
Alexander Bublik32%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes35%
no65%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 23.0 · 48%market (no margin): 51%

The 23.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 24.7

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
20.570%30%59%
21.562%38%54%
22.556%44%45%
23.548%52%39%
24.541%59%38%
25.538%62%34%
26.535%65%30%

Sample: 4,187 matches

Games handicap

Alexander Zverev −3.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes55%

tour average 38%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:1
  • Total games Over 23.0in · 36 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breaktie-break played

Match stats

Alexander ZverevAlexander Bublik
15Aces20
1Double faults8
77%First serves in63%
81%First-serve points won80%
56%Second-serve points won42%
1/6Break points converted2/3
15/17Service games held16/17
75%Service points won66%
34%Return points won25%
118Total points won106

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

A. ZverevTourA. Bublik
Service points won71%62%68%
Return points won37%38%34%
Service games held89%76%87%
Breaks of serve22%24%16%
Aces per service game0.690.87
Double faults per game0.160.27
Sets with a tie-break24%24%
Tie-breaks won36/5321/35
Wins in straight sets59%66%
Matches in the sample8056

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Alexander Zverev

Alexander Bublik

Elo over the last year

Alexander ZverevAlexander Bublik

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

A. ZverevA. Bublik
Hard court34–1176%22–1069%
Clay20–483%8–850%
Grass9–282%5–363%

Head to head

A. Zverev 1–3 A. Bublik

  • 24/06/23Winner: Alexander Bublik3:6 5:7
  • 11/04/23Winner: Alexander Zverev3:6 6:2 6:4
  • 06/02/22Winner: Alexander Bublik4:6 3:6
  • 03/03/21Winner: Alexander Bublik5:7 3:6

Road through the tournament

Alexander Zverev

Alexander Bublik

See also