Club rankings

As of 13 October 2026 · 593 clubs from 34 leagues

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Strength vs goals
Each dot is a club: higher means stronger, further right means more goals in its matches. Search for a club or click a dot to mark it. Table filters highlight clubs.
Biggest gains in 7 days
Biggest drops in 7 days
#ClubElo7 days
1Bayern MunichBundesliga · #1 in league2,164+5
2BarcelonaLaLiga · #1 in league2,144−3
3Man CityPremier League · #1 in league2,141+13
4ArsenalPremier League · #2 in league2,103−1
5Real MadridLaLiga · #2 in league2,088−2
6Paris SGLigue 1 · #1 in league2,041−7
17Man UnitedPremier League · #3 in league2,019−4
18LiverpoolPremier League · #4 in league2,016−13
19ChelseaPremier League · #5 in league2,007+8
110InterSerie A · #1 in league2,005−1
511Ath MadridLaLiga · #3 in league1,973+13
112DortmundBundesliga · #2 in league1,9720
213RomaSerie A · #2 in league1,970−6
414BrightonPremier League · #6 in league1,969+14
115LeverkusenBundesliga · #3 in league1,967−3
416BrentfordPremier League · #7 in league1,965−8
217BenficaLiga Portugal · #1 in league1,962+1
118JuventusSerie A · #3 in league1,9590
19ComoSerie A · #4 in league1,956+6
220StuttgartBundesliga · #4 in league1,942−2
21BournemouthPremier League · #8 in league1,940−8
222LeedsPremier League · #9 in league1,938+1
223TottenhamPremier League · #10 in league1,935+4
424Sp LisbonLiga Portugal · #2 in league1,931−19
225HoffenheimBundesliga · #5 in league1,930−10
126RB LeipzigBundesliga · #6 in league1,926+7
127MilanSerie A · #5 in league1,912−10
428Aston VillaPremier League · #11 in league1,911+8
129PortoLiga Portugal · #3 in league1,904−3
330BetisLaLiga · #4 in league1,901+1
431VillarrealLaLiga · #5 in league1,896+2
332EvertonPremier League · #12 in league1,894−14
533NewcastlePremier League · #13 in league1,892−17
34FulhamPremier League · #14 in league1,892−3
435SunderlandPremier League · #15 in league1,891−14
136Ath BilbaoLaLiga · #6 in league1,8880
237Nott'm ForestPremier League · #16 in league1,885+9
139NapoliSerie A · #6 in league1,879+4
38PSV EindhovenEredivisie · #1 in league1,879−3
440Flamengo RJBrasileiro Serie A · #1 in league1,872−19
41MonacoLigue 1 · #2 in league1,862−5
842FenerbahceSuper Lig · #1 in league1,861+25
443BesiktasSuper Lig · #2 in league1,859+9
44MainzBundesliga · #7 in league1,858+2
245FreiburgBundesliga · #8 in league1,856−3
446Crystal PalacePremier League · #17 in league1,854−9
147LyonLigue 1 · #3 in league1,852+10
248AtalantaSerie A · #7 in league1,851+1
449GalatasaraySuper Lig · #3 in league1,850−5
550SevillaLaLiga · #7 in league1,842+14

Who wins?

Chances from the Elo gap. The home side gets its league's home advantage, or the Champions League one when the clubs play in different leagues.
48%1 · Bayern Munich
25%X
26%2 · Barcelona

Elo gap incl. home advantage: +98

Does the ranking hold up?

Matches from 13 October 2025 to 13 October 2026 (12,956). Chances computed before each match, with parameters fitted on older matches only.
  • The ranking favourite won 50.1% of matches.
  • Log-loss 1.012 vs 1.072 from outcome frequencies alone (lower is better).
  • Classic ranking on the same matches: log-loss 1.024.
  • A dot on the diagonal means good calibration: outcomes given 30% happened 30% of the time.

Biggest upsets of the last 12 months

Results that had the smallest pre-match chance by club Elo (result after 90 minutes). With thousands of matches a year these happen regularly: 5% is about 1 in 20.
  1. 1.24/01/26BundesligaBayern Munich1:2Augsburgpre-match chance 4.3%
  2. 2.22/08/26ChampionshipWest Ham1:2Charltonpre-match chance 4.6%
  3. 3.09/08/26Liga PortugalBenfica2:2Academico Viseupre-match chance 5.4%
  4. 4.02/11/25EliteserienKFUM Oslo1:4Haugesundpre-match chance 5.9%
  5. 5.10/05/26Liga PortugalAVS3:1Portopre-match chance 5.9%
  6. 6.23/08/26VeikkausliigaKuPS2:4Mariehamnpre-match chance 6.1%
  7. 7.22/08/26Premier LeagueHull2:0Man Unitedpre-match chance 7.3%
  8. 8.19/04/26Ligue 1Paris SG1:2Lyonpre-match chance 7.6%
  9. 9.16/08/26Liga PortugalFamalicao1:2Maritimopre-match chance 7.6%
  10. 10.02/11/25Premier DivisionBray1:0Treaty Unitedpre-match chance 7.6%

How the ranking with odds works

  • It is the same Elo ranking as the classic one: one pool of leagues and cups, home advantage per league, promotion and relegation.
  • After a match the points move with the result and with the closing odds, that is how the market priced the match just before kick-off.
  • The result weighs less than in the classic ranking (a factor of 7.5 instead of 15) and the closing odds a lot (200): closing odds are far less random than a single result.
  • A match's odds change the ranking only after the match, so the pre-match chances never know them.
  • A match without closing odds counts as in the classic ranking.
  • On 2023–2026 matches the model had not seen, the ranking with odds predicted results better than the classic one. Next to it we publish the test on the last 12 months of matches.