1. DivisionMatchday 12
Hobro vs Vendsyssel: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 9d 8hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS53%O2.548%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Vendsyssel1:2HobroW
- Vendsyssel2:0HobroL
- Hobro3:1VendsysselW
- Hobro1:0VendsysselW
- Vendsyssel0:3HobroW
Hobro's record: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss2.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.2league 9.9over 9.5: 56%Expected corners: 10.2 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.3league 3.2under 3.5: 57%Expected yellow cards: 3.3 in this match, 3.2 on average in the league.In this league 60% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 9%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.4 : 1.2total 2.5Attack/defence1.3 : 1.2total 2.6
Hobro : VendsysselMost likely scores
Model1-114%1-010%0-18%0-09%2-19%1-2—Attack/defence1-113%1-010%0-19%0-08%2-18%1-28%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-114%1-113%1-01-010%1-010%0-10-18%0-19%0-00-09%0-08%2-12-19%2-18%1-21-2—1-28%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 12 – no draw | 71%73% | 73% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 69%66% | 66% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 59%61% | 61% |
| 1 – Hobro win | 41%39% · Elo 46% | 39%· Elo 46% |
| 2 – Vendsyssel win | 31%34% · Elo 28% | 34%· Elo 28% |
| X – draw | 29%27% · Elo 27% | 27%· Elo 27% |
Attack vs defence
Hobro attack vs Vendsyssel defenceattack1430defence1461−31 pts to the attack
Vendsyssel attack vs Hobro defenceattack1481defence1495−14 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 60%close to the league averageunderover 40%
We expect 8.9 in this match, 9.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.553%53%
9.540%45%
10.529%37%
11.520%28%
Each team on its own
Hobrowe expect 4.7, league average 4.6 · chance of over 4.5: 50%
Vendsysselwe expect 4.1, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 39%
Foulsleague average
Over 19.5 · 64%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 36%over
We expect 21.8 in this match, 19.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.571%50%
19.564%45%
20.557%43%
21.550%40%
Each team on its own
Hobrowe expect 9.9, league average 9.5 · chance of over 9.5: 52%
Vendsysselwe expect 12.2, league average 10.4 · chance of over 10.5: 65%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%
We expect 3.4 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.565%62%
3.544%42%
4.526%28%
5.513%18%
Each team on its own
Hobrowe expect 1.7, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 49%
Vendsysselwe expect 1.7, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 50%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Vendsyssel: newly promoted
- Hobro: 6 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Vendsyssel: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Hobro | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 9 | Vendsyssel | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10:16 | 10 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Hobro vs Vendsyssel?
Hobro are the favourites. Chances: Hobro win 41%, draw 29%, Vendsyssel win 31%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Hobro vs Vendsyssel?
Expected goals: 2.5 (Hobro 1.4, Vendsyssel 1.2). Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Hobro vs Vendsyssel?
The 1. Division match kicks off 23 October 2026, 17:00 (UK time).