Ligue 1Matchday 8
Paris SG vs Lyon: prediction, tips and stats
·
Our tips
Tip in 11d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS62%56%O2.571%58%|exp. goals 2.0 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Paris SG1:2LyonL
- Lyon2:3Paris SGW
- Lyon2:3Paris SGW
- Paris SG3:1LyonW
- Paris SG4:1LyonW
Paris SG's record: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss4.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.8league 9.6over 9.5: 52%Expected corners: 9.8 in this match, 9.6 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.5league 3.6under 3.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 3.5 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 46% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.6 : 1.1total 3.7Attack/defence2.0 : 1.1total 3.0
Paris SG : LyonMost likely scores
Market1-18%2-19%2-09%1-0—3-18%3-07%Attack/defence1-111%2-110%2-09%1-09%3-17%3-06%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-18%1-111%2-12-19%2-110%2-02-09%2-09%1-01-0—1-09%3-13-18%3-17%3-03-07%3-06%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88%80% | 80% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 86%80% | 80% |
| 12 – no draw | 83%78% | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71%58% | 58% |
| 1 – Paris SG win | 69%58% · Elo 71% | 58%· Elo 71% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62%56% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50%36% | 36% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 50%64% | 64% |
| Both teams to score: no | 38%44% | 44% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 31%42% | 42% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29%42% | 42% |
| X – draw | 17%22% · Elo 17% | 22%· Elo 17% |
| 2 – Lyon win | 14%20% · Elo 11% | 20%· Elo 11% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 12%20% | 20% |
Attack vs defence
Paris SG attack vs Lyon defenceattack1678defence1537+141 pts to the attack
Lyon attack vs Paris SG defenceattack1548defence1628−80 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 56%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 44%over
We expect 9.2 in this match, 8.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.568%60%
8.556%49%
9.543%38%
10.532%28%
Each team on its own
Paris SGwe expect 5.2, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 58%
Lyonwe expect 4.3, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 61%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 67%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 33%
We expect 19.5 in this match, 21.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.540%53%
21.533%47%
22.527%41%
23.521%36%
Each team on its own
Paris SGwe expect 8.9, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 29%
Lyonwe expect 10.3, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 45%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 51%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 49%over
We expect 3.7 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.571%63%
3.551%43%
4.532%26%
5.518%14%
Each team on its own
Paris SGwe expect 1.8, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 53%
Lyonwe expect 1.9, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 56%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Lyon matches average 12.8 corners (league 9.6) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Paris SG: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Lyon: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11:4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris SG | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11:8 | 11 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Paris SG vs Lyon?
Paris SG are the favourites. Chances: Paris SG win 69%, draw 17%, Lyon win 14%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Paris SG vs Lyon?
Expected goals: 3.7 (Paris SG 2.6, Lyon 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 71%. Most likely score: 2-1.
Will both teams score in Paris SG vs Lyon?
The chance that both teams score is 62%.
When is Paris SG vs Lyon?
The Ligue 1 match kicks off 25 October 2026, 19:45 (UK time).