Ligue 1Matchday 6

Paris SG 3-1 Le Mans: prediction, tips and result

·

Paris SG
2-22-21-21-02-1
3-1Full time(half time 1-0)
Le Mans
2-12-21-12-32-2
Stadium:
Parc des Princes, Paris
Referee:
Mathieu Vernice

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Total Goals: Over 3.5Won57%

our numbers: 4.0 goals in total in this match, league average 2.8

Other tips

  • Fouls – Paris SG: Under 9.5Won68%

    our numbers for Paris SG: 8.3 fouls against a league average of 10.8; Paris SG: under 9.5 fouls in 5 of their last 5 league matches, Le Mans's opponents committed under 9.5 in 2 of 5 (39% of league matches)

  • Offsides: Over 3.5Won62%

    our numbers: 4.3 offsides against a league average of 3.4; over 3.5 offsides in 4 of the hosts' last 5 league matches and 4 of the visitors' last 5 (43% of league matches)

  • Shots on Target – Paris SG: Over 5.5Won57%

    our numbers for Paris SG: 6.2 shots on target against a league average of 4.7; Paris SG: 7.2 shots on target a match, Le Mans's opponents had 5.2 on average, league average 4.7

For the brave
Correct Score: 4:0Lost10%
How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloParis SG218486%87%Draw9%8%Le Mans16895%4%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS48%52%O2.575%62%|exp. goals 2.4 : 0.8both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Le Mans1:0Paris SGL
  2. Paris SG3:1Le MansW
  3. Le Mans0:1Paris SGW
  4. Paris SG3:1Le MansW
  5. Paris SG0:0Le MansD
Paris SG's record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss2.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.8league 9.6over 9.5: 51%Expected corners: 9.8 in this match, 9.6 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 9.5 corners.lost · ended 8
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 3.6over 3.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 26%.won · ended 5
RefereeM. Vernice+0.7 yellow cards vs average19 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)70%U4.55:0coverageleague 84% · H2H 5/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market3.2 : 0.7total 3.9Attack/defence2.4 : 0.8total 3.2
Paris SG : Le Mans
Most likely scores
Market2-010%3-011%2-17%1-0—4-09%1-1—3-18%Attack/defence2-011%3-09%2-110%1-09%4-0—1-18%3-18%
MarketAttack/defence2-02-010%2-011%3-03-011%3-09%2-12-17%2-110%1-01-0—1-09%4-04-09%4-0—1-11-1—1-18%3-13-18%3-18%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
1X – home team avoid defeat95%89%89%
12 – no draw91%83%83%
Over 1.5 goals91%83%83%
1 – Paris SG win86%72% · Elo 87%72%· Elo 87%
Over 2.5 goals75%62%62%
Our tip: Over 3.5 goals55%40%40%
Both teams to score: no52%48%48%
Both teams to score: yes48%52%52%
Under 3.5 goals45%60%60%
Under 2.5 goals25%38%38%
X2 – away team avoid defeat14%28%28%
X – draw9%17% · Elo 8%17%· Elo 8%
Under 1.5 goals9%17%17%
2 – Le Mans win5%11% · Elo 4%11%· Elo 4%
Attack vs defence
Paris SG attack vs Le Mans defenceattack1672defence1421+251 pts to the attack
Le Mans attack vs Paris SG defenceattack1423defence1631−208 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 60%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 40%over
We expect 9.5 in this match, 8.5 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.572%59%
8.560%48%
9.547%37%
10.536%28%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Paris SGwe expect 6.2, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 71%
Le Manswe expect 4.0, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 56%
Foulsleague average
Over 21.5 · 51%close to the league averageunder 49%over
We expect 21.9 in this match, 21.5 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
20.558%53%
21.551%47%
22.544%42%
23.537%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Paris SGwe expect 8.3, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 23%
Le Manswe expect 11.2, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 56%
Referee: 25.2 fouls per match on average (19 matches in our data)+4.2 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 62%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 38%over
We expect 4.3 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.580%63%
3.562%43%
4.543%26%
5.527%14%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Paris SGwe expect 2.3, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 66%
Le Manswe expect 2.1, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 60%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Paris SG matches average only 2.4 cards (league 3.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
  • Le Mans: newly promoted
  • Paris SG: 20 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Le Mans: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Paris SG

Le Mans

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6Paris SG632111:811
14Le Mans613210:126
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Paris SG vs Le Mans?

Paris SG 3-1 Le Mans (half time 1-0).

Did the Paris SG vs Le Mans tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Total Goals: Over 3.5. The tip won.

See also