Ligue 1Matchday 6

Lens 2-1 Lyon: prediction, tips and result

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Lens
5-21-20-12-21-2
2-1Full time(half time 1-0)
Lyon
4-00-03-11-12-0
Stadium:
Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens
Referee:
Jeremy Stinat

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Corners: Over 9.5Won61%

our numbers: 10.6 corners against a league average of 9.6; over 9.5 corners in 3 of the hosts' last 5 league matches and 4 of the visitors' last 5 (49% of league matches)

Other tips

  • Cards – Lens (yellow=1, red=2): Over 1.5Won64%

    our numbers for Lens: 2.2 card points against a league average of 1.9; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

  • Shots on Target – Lyon: Over 3.5Won56%

    Lyon: 5.0 shots on target a match, Lens's opponents had 4.8 on average, league average 3.8; over 3.5 shots on target in 3 of their last 5 league matches, Lens's opponents had over 3.5 in 4 of 5 (48% of league matches)

  • Fouls – Lyon: Under 10.5Lost61%

    our numbers for Lyon: 9.8 fouls against a league average of 10.7

For the brave
Corners: Over 10.5Won49%

our numbers: 10.6 corners against a league average of 9.6

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloLens192537%42%Draw26%28%Lyon191237%31%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS65%57%O2.562%55%|exp. goals 1.7 : 1.2both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Lyon0:4LensW
  2. Lens0:1LyonL
  3. Lyon1:2LensW
  4. Lens0:0LyonD
  5. Lyon0:3LensW
Lens's record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss2.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.6league 9.6over 9.5: 61%Expected corners: 10.6 in this match, 9.6 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 9.5 corners.won · ended 11
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 3.6over 3.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 25%.lost · ended 2
RefereeJ. Stinat+0.1 yellow cards vs average20 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)74%O2.51:1coverageleague 64% · H2H 3/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.6 : 1.6total 3.2Attack/defence1.7 : 1.2total 2.9
Lens : Lyon
Most likely scores
Market1-111%2-18%1-06%1-28%2-0—2-27%0-1—Attack/defence1-112%2-110%1-09%1-27%2-08%2-2—0-17%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%2-12-18%2-110%1-01-06%1-09%1-21-28%1-27%2-02-0—2-08%2-22-27%2-2—0-10-1—0-17%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals84%78%78%
12 – no draw74%75%75%
Both teams to score: yes65%57%57%
1X – home team avoid defeat63%73%73%
X2 – away team avoid defeat63%52%52%
Over 2.5 goals62%55%55%
Under 3.5 goals60%68%68%
Over 3.5 goals40%32%32%
Under 2.5 goals38%45%45%
1 – Lens win37%48% · Elo 42%48%· Elo 42%
2 – Lyon win37%27% · Elo 31%27%· Elo 31%
Both teams to score: no35%43%43%
X – draw26%25% · Elo 28%25%· Elo 28%
Under 1.5 goals16%22%22%
Attack vs defence
Lens attack vs Lyon defenceattack1596defence1539+57 pts to the attack
Lyon attack vs Lens defenceattack1547defence1557−10 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 52%close to the league averageunder 48%over
We expect 8.8 in this match, 8.5 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.565%59%
8.552%48%
9.539%37%
10.528%27%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Lenswe expect 5.1, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 56%
Lyonwe expect 4.0, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 56%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 54%close to the league averageunderover 46%
We expect 21.3 in this match, 21.5 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
20.553%53%
21.546%47%
22.539%41%
23.533%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Lenswe expect 11.9, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 62%
Lyonwe expect 9.8, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 39%
Referee: 19.8 fouls per match on average (20 matches in our data)−0.8 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 61%close to the league averageunderover 39%
We expect 3.2 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.561%63%
3.539%43%
4.522%26%
5.510%14%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Lenswe expect 1.8, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 52%
Lyonwe expect 1.4, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 39%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Lyon matches average 13.5 corners (league 9.6) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
  • Lens matches average 11.9 corners (league 9.6) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
  • Lens: only 12 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 17 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • Lens: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Lyon: 20 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Lens

Lyon

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Lyon632111:411
10Lens621311:107
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Lens vs Lyon?

Lens 2-1 Lyon (half time 1-0).

Did the Lens vs Lyon tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Corners: Over 9.5. The tip won.

See also