J1 LeagueMatchday 3

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-1 Kawasaki Frontale: prediction, tips and result

Saturday 22 August · 11:15

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

3-0 4-1

1-1Full time(half time 1-0)

Kawasaki Frontale

2-2 1-1

Stadium:: Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima, Hiroshima
Referee:: Yuzo Sutani

Our tips

Main tip

Cards: Under 2.5Lost65%

referee Yuzo Sutani averages 1.8 cards a match, league average 2.6; our numbers: 2.1 cards against a league average of 2.6

Other tips

Total Goals: Over 2.5Lost64%
our numbers: 3.4 goals in total in this match, league average 2.7

For the brave

Cards: Under 1.5Lost39%

referee Yuzo Sutani averages 1.8 cards a match, league average 2.6; our numbers: 2.1 cards against a league average of 2.6

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloSanfrecce Hiroshima176964%52%Draw20%26%Kawasaki Frontale164716%22%favourite did not win

Goalsattack/defenceBTTS59%56%O2.564%55%|exp. goals 1.8 : 1.1both scored

H2Hlast 5 meetings

06/06/202606/06/26Kawasaki Frontale0:1Sanfrecce HiroshimaW
30/05/202630/05/26Sanfrecce Hiroshima2:1Kawasaki FrontaleW
30/11/202530/11/25Kawasaki Frontale1:2Sanfrecce HiroshimaW
31/05/202531/05/25Sanfrecce Hiroshima1:2Kawasaki FrontaleL
29/06/202429/06/24Kawasaki Frontale1:1Sanfrecce HiroshimaD

Sanfrecce Hiroshima's record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss2.4 goals per match

Cornersleague corners9.3league 9.5under 9.5: 55%Expected corners: 9.3 in this match, 9.5 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.won · ended 6

Cardsleague cards2.1league 2.6under 2.5: 65%Expected cards: 2.1 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end under 2.5 cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.lost · ended 3

RefereeY. Sutani−1.1 cards vs average13 matches

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Market2.3 : 1.1total 3.4Attack/defence1.8 : 1.1total 2.9

Sanfrecce Hiroshima : Kawasaki Frontale

Most likely scores

Market1-19%2-110%1-08%2-09%3-17%1-2—0-0—Attack/defence1-111%2-110%1-010%2-09%3-1—1-26%0-06%

MarketAttack/defence1-11-19%1-111%2-12-110%2-110%1-01-08%1-010%2-02-09%2-09%3-13-17%3-1—1-21-2—1-26%0-00-0—0-06%

Outcome	Market	Attack/defence
Over 1.5 goals	85%79%	79%
1X – home team avoid defeat	84%77%	77%
12 – no draw	80%76%	76%
1 – Sanfrecce Hiroshima win	64%53% · Elo 52%	53%· Elo 52%
Over 2.5 goals	64%55%	55%
Both teams to score: yes	59%56%	56%
Under 3.5 goals	58%67%	67%
Over 3.5 goals	42%33%	33%
Both teams to score: no	41%44%	44%
X2 – away team avoid defeat	36%47%	47%
Under 2.5 goals	36%45%	45%
X – draw	20%24% · Elo 26%	24%· Elo 26%
2 – Kawasaki Frontale win	16%23% · Elo 22%	23%· Elo 22%
Under 1.5 goals	15%21%	21%

Attack vs defence

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack vs Kawasaki Frontale defenceattack1581defence1439+142 pts to the attack

Kawasaki Frontale attack vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima defenceattack1566defence1609−43 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Worth knowing before kick-off

Kawasaki Frontale matches average only 1.3 cards (league 2.6) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima: 7 wins in a row
Sanfrecce Hiroshima: 23 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 18 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
Kawasaki Frontale score a lot late on: 10 of 22 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
Kawasaki Frontale: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.

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