USL Championship

Sporting Jax vs Louisville City: prediction, tips and stats

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Sporting Jax
0-30-21-41-40-1
1.2:2.0Pre-match
Louisville City
4-12-02-22-11-2

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Total Goals: Over 2.566%

our numbers: 3.4 goals in total in this match, league average 2.6; over 2.5 goals in 7 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 6 of the visitors' last 10 (48% of league matches)

Other tips

  • Match Result: Louisville City71%

    Sporting Jax: winless in their last 5 league matches

For the brave
Total Goals: Over 3.544%

our numbers: 3.4 goals in total in this match, league average 2.6; over 3.5 goals in 6 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 3 of the visitors' last 10 (30% of league matches)

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloSporting Jax135210%18%Draw15%23%Louisville City161475%59%
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS54%61%O2.568%63%|exp. goals 1.2 : 2.0
H2Hlast meeting
  1. Louisville City1:0Sporting JaxL
Sporting Jax's record: 0 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss1.0 goals per match
too few to read anything into
Cornersleague cornersin line with the league9.3league 9.2under 9.5: 54%Expected corners: 9.3 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.0league 4.2under 4.5: 63%Expected yellow cards: 4.0 in this match, 4.2 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 16%.
Refereeno referee data
Dutching(several bets at once)67%BTTS yes0:2coverageleague 56% · H2H 0/1

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market0.9 : 2.6total 3.5Attack/defence1.2 : 2.0total 3.2
Sporting Jax : Louisville City
Most likely scores
Market0-211%1-1—1-29%0-39%1-38%0-18%2-2—Attack/defence0-28%1-110%1-210%0-3—1-37%0-18%2-26%
MarketAttack/defence0-20-211%0-28%1-11-1—1-110%1-21-29%1-210%0-30-39%0-3—1-31-38%1-37%0-10-18%0-18%2-22-2—2-26%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
X2 – away team avoid defeat90%78%78%
Over 1.5 goals87%83%83%
12 – no draw85%78%78%
2 – Louisville City win75%57% · Elo 59%57%· Elo 59%
Our tip: Over 2.5 goals68%63%63%
Under 3.5 goals54%60%60%
Both teams to score: yes54%61%61%
Over 3.5 goals46%40%40%
Both teams to score: no46%39%39%
Under 2.5 goals32%37%37%
1X – home team avoid defeat25%43%43%
X – draw15%22% · Elo 23%22%· Elo 23%
Under 1.5 goals13%17%17%
1 – Sporting Jax win10%22% · Elo 18%22%· Elo 18%
Attack vs defence
Sporting Jax attack vs Louisville City defenceattack1459defence1551−92 pts to the attack
Louisville City attack vs Sporting Jax defenceattack1649defence1317+332 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 67%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 33%over
We expect 9.0 in this match, 7.9 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
6.578%60%
7.567%50%
8.554%32%
9.542%27%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Sporting Jaxwe expect 4.1, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 39%
Louisville Citywe expect 5.3, league average 3.4 · chance of over 3.5: 75%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 75%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 26%
We expect 20.2 in this match, 23.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
22.532%55%
23.526%49%
24.520%44%
25.516%38%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Sporting Jaxwe expect 9.4, league average 11.3 · chance of over 11.5: 25%
Louisville Citywe expect 10.5, league average 11.7 · chance of over 11.5: 36%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 57%close to the league averageunderover 43%
We expect 3.4 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.565%57%
3.543%40%
4.525%18%
5.513%14%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Sporting Jaxwe expect 1.3, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 36%
Louisville Citywe expect 2.1, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 60%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Streaks before the match

  • Sporting Jax5 defeats in a rowat home: 3Went on 49%League 28%Model 75%Record 15
All streaks

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Sporting Jax concede 2.8 goals per game (last 10 league matches)
  • Louisville City matches average only 3.1 cards (league 4.3) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
  • Sporting Jax: 5 defeats in a row in the league
  • Sporting Jax: newly promoted
  • Sporting Jax: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Louisville City: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Sporting Jax

Louisville City

League position

Eastern Conference

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Louisville City28127949:4343
13Sporting Jax28352032:7414
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Sporting Jax vs Louisville City?

Louisville City are the favourites. Chances: Sporting Jax win 10%, draw 15%, Louisville City win 75%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.

What is the tip for Sporting Jax vs Louisville City?

Our tip: Total Goals: Over 2.5 (66% chance). Why: our numbers: 3.4 goals in total in this match, league average 2.6; over 2.5 goals in 7 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 6 of the visitors' last 10 (48% of league matches).

How many goals will there be in Sporting Jax vs Louisville City?

Expected goals: 3.5 (Sporting Jax 0.9, Louisville City 2.6). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 68%. Most likely score: 0-2.

Will both teams score in Sporting Jax vs Louisville City?

The chance that both teams score is 54%.

When is Sporting Jax vs Louisville City?

The USL Championship match kicks off 22 October 2026, 00:30 (UK time).

See also