Louisville City vs Indy Eleven: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 20hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS60%57%O2.561%59%|exp. goals 2.0 : 1.0
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Indy Eleven2:1Louisville CityL
- Louisville City2:0Indy ElevenW
- Indy Eleven1:3Louisville CityW
- Indy Eleven2:2Louisville CityD
- Louisville City5:3Indy ElevenW
Louisville City's record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss4.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.4league 9.2under 9.5: 53%Expected corners: 9.4 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.0league 4.2under 4.5: 64%Expected yellow cards: 4.0 in this match, 4.2 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.0 : 1.2total 3.2Attack/defence2.0 : 1.0total 3.1
Louisville City : Indy ElevenMost likely scores
Market1-111%2-110%2-08%1-08%3-16%3-0—Attack/defence1-110%2-110%2-010%1-09%3-17%3-06%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-110%2-12-110%2-110%2-02-08%2-010%1-01-08%1-09%3-13-16%3-17%3-03-0—3-06%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83%81% | 81% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 78%81% | 81% |
| 12 – no draw | 77%78% | 78% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 62%63% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61%59% | 59% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60%57% | 57% |
| 1 – Louisville City win | 55%60% · Elo 63% | 60%· Elo 63% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 45%40% | 40% |
| Both teams to score: no | 40%43% | 43% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39%41% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38%37% | 37% |
| X – draw | 23%22% · Elo 21% | 22%· Elo 21% |
| 2 – Indy Eleven win | 22%19% · Elo 16% | 19%· Elo 16% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17%19% | 19% |
Attack vs defence
Louisville City attack vs Indy Eleven defenceattack1643defence1451+192 pts to the attack
Indy Eleven attack vs Louisville City defenceattack1512defence1553−41 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 50%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 50%
We expect 8.7 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.563%51%
8.550%34%
9.538%28%
10.527%24%
Each team on its own
Louisville Citywe expect 5.5, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 62%
Indy Elevenwe expect 3.7, league average 3.5 · chance of over 3.5: 50%
Foulsleague average
Under 22.5 · 68%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 32%
We expect 20.2 in this match, 22.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.21.538%63%
22.532%52%
23.526%46%
24.520%41%
Each team on its own
Louisville Citywe expect 10.5, league average 11.0 · chance of over 11.5: 37%
Indy Elevenwe expect 9.4, league average 11.6 · chance of over 11.5: 25%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 53%close to the league averageunder 47%over
We expect 2.8 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.577%70%
2.553%55%
3.531%39%
4.516%17%
Each team on its own
Louisville Citywe expect 1.2, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 35%
Indy Elevenwe expect 1.5, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 44%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Louisville City matches average only 2.9 cards (league 4.4) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Indy Eleven: only 9 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 14 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Louisville City: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Indy Eleven: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Eastern Conference
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Louisville City | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 45:42 | 40 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 34:36 | 34 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Louisville City vs Indy Eleven?
Louisville City are the favourites. Chances: Louisville City win 55%, draw 23%, Indy Eleven win 22%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Louisville City vs Indy Eleven?
Expected goals: 3.2 (Louisville City 2.0, Indy Eleven 1.2). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 61%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Louisville City vs Indy Eleven?
The chance that both teams score is 60%.
When is Louisville City vs Indy Eleven?
The USL Championship match kicks off 18 October 2026, 00:00 (UK time).