Loudoun United FC 1-1 Indy Eleven: prediction, tips and result

Saturday 3 October · 23:00

Loudoun United FC

1-4 4-5 0-1 1-2 4-1

1-1Full time(half time 0-1)

Indy Eleven

0-1 0-2 0-1 4-0 2-2

Stadium:: Segra Field, Leesburg, VA

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: 2 October 2026, 23:53. A published tip never changes.

Main tip

Cards: Under 4.5Lost58%

3.2 cards a match in the hosts' matches, 3.8 in the visitors', league average 4.4; under 4.5 cards in 8 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 6 of the visitors' last 10 (54% of league matches)

Other tips

Fouls – Indy Eleven: Under 11.5Won68%
our numbers for Indy Eleven: 10.1 fouls against a league average of 11.5; Indy Eleven: under 11.5 fouls in 7 of their last 10 league matches, Loudoun United FC's opponents committed under 11.5 in 8 of 10 (46% of league matches)
Offsides – Loudoun United FC: Under 1.5Won67%
Loudoun United FC: 1.0 offsides a match, Indy Eleven's opponents were caught offside 0.8 times on average, league average 1.6; our numbers for Loudoun United FC: 1.2 offsides against a league average of 1.6

For the brave

Cards: Under 3.5Lost40%

under 3.5 cards in 7 of the hosts' last 10 league matches and 4 of the visitors' last 10 (34% of league matches); 3.2 cards a match in the hosts' matches, 3.8 in the visitors', league average 4.4

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloLoudoun United FC141842%39%Draw25%28%Indy Eleven142833%33%favourite did not win

Goalsattack/defenceBTTS62%58%O2.560%55%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.3both scored

H2Hlast 5 meetings

25/07/202625/07/26Indy Eleven0:1Loudoun United FCW
19/10/202519/10/25Indy Eleven2:1Loudoun United FCL
16/08/202516/08/25Loudoun United FC3:2Indy ElevenW
08/10/202408/10/24Loudoun United FC0:1Indy ElevenL
13/07/202413/07/24Indy Eleven1:1Loudoun United FCD

Loudoun United FC's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses2.4 goals per match

Cornersleague corners9.3league 9.2under 9.5: 55%Expected corners: 9.3 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.lost · ended 12

Cardsleague cards4.3league 4.4under 4.5: 58%Expected cards: 4.3 in this match, 4.4 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 4.5 cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.lost · ended 6

Refereeno referee data

Dutching(several bets at once)72%O2.51:1coverageleague 59% · H2H 3/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Market1.6 : 1.4total 3.0Attack/defence1.5 : 1.3total 2.9

Loudoun United FC : Indy Eleven

Most likely scores

Market1-112%2-19%1-07%1-28%0-1—2-0—2-26%Attack/defence1-112%2-19%1-08%1-28%0-17%2-07%2-2—

MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%2-12-19%2-19%1-01-07%1-08%1-21-28%1-28%0-10-1—0-17%2-02-0—2-07%2-22-26%2-2—

Outcome	Market	Attack/defence
Over 1.5 goals	82%78%	78%
12 – no draw	75%75%	75%
1X – home team avoid defeat	67%67%	67%
Under 3.5 goals	63%68%	68%
Both teams to score: yes	62%58%	58%
Over 2.5 goals	60%55%	55%
X2 – away team avoid defeat	58%58%	58%
1 – Loudoun United FC win	42%42% · Elo 39%	42%· Elo 39%
Under 2.5 goals	40%45%	45%
Both teams to score: no	38%42%	42%
Over 3.5 goals	37%32%	32%
2 – Indy Eleven win	33%33% · Elo 33%	33%· Elo 33%
X – draw	25%26% · Elo 28%	26%· Elo 28%
Under 1.5 goals	18%22%	22%

Attack vs defence

Loudoun United FC attack vs Indy Eleven defenceattack1499defence1458+41 pts to the attack

Indy Eleven attack vs Loudoun United FC defenceattack1520defence1426+94 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average

Under 8.5 · 53%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 47%

We expect 8.5 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

7.560%51%

8.547%35%

9.535%29%

10.524%24%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Loudoun United FCwe expect 4.9, league average 4.6 · chance of over 4.5: 54%

Indy Elevenwe expect 3.8, league average 3.5 · chance of over 3.5: 51%

Foulsleague average

Under 22.5 · 63%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 37%

We expect 20.9 in this match, 22.3 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

21.544%62%

22.537%50%

23.530%44%

24.525%39%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Loudoun United FCwe expect 10.6, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 48%

Indy Elevenwe expect 10.1, league average 11.5 · chance of over 11.5: 33%

Offsidesleague average

Under 2.5 · 50%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 50%

We expect 2.7 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

1.574%71%

2.550%55%

3.528%37%

4.514%16%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Loudoun United FCwe expect 1.2, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 33%

Indy Elevenwe expect 1.4, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 41%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

Loudoun United FC matches average only 3.2 cards (league 4.4) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
Indy Eleven played 3 days ago
Loudoun United FC: 8 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.

League form