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WTA TokyoWTA 500Round of 16hardbest of three sets

Bucsa vs Joint 1:2: result and our tips

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Cristina BucsaWTA #42Elo 1792hard 1781
1:2final1:6 6:2 4:6
Maya JointWTA #94Elo 1815hard 1801

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 18.5Won69%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 18.5 games in recent matches: Bucsa 17 of 20, Joint 16 of 20 (tour average 64%)

Long shot
Total Games: Over 24.5Won36%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 24.5 games in recent matches: Bucsa 7 of 20, Joint 10 of 20 (tour average 32%)

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Cristina Bucsa45%
Maya Joint55%

Elo: C. Bucsa 47% · M. Joint 53%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 C. Bucsa29%
2:1 C. Bucsa18%
2:1 M. Joint20%
2:0 M. Joint33%

First set

Cristina Bucsa48%
Maya Joint52%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 51%market (no margin): 50%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
18.569%31%64%
19.561%39%56%
20.554%46%49%
21.549%51%44%
22.543%57%38%
23.539%61%34%
24.536%64%32%

Sample: 2,424 matches

Games handicap

M. Joint −1.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes25%

tour average 22%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 21.5out · 25 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Cristina BucsaMaya Joint
—Aces—
7Double faults3
77%First serves in69%
57%First-serve points won58%
33%Second-serve points won56%
4/14Break points converted5/16
7/12Service games held9/13
52%Service points won58%
43%Return points won48%
85Total points won95

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

C. BucsaTourM. Joint
Service points won56%56%55%
Return points won45%44%44%
Service games held64%63%62%
Breaks of serve37%37%36%
Aces per service game0.120.18
Double faults per game0.290.31
Sets with a tie-break14%11%
Tie-breaks won6/137/13
Wins in straight sets75%48%
Matches in the sample4248

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Cristina Bucsa

Maya Joint

Elo over the last year

Cristina BucsaMaya Joint

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

C. BucsaM. Joint
Hard court20–1853%21–1755%
Clay0–40%1–517%
Grass0–01–325%

Head to head

C. Bucsa 1–0 M. Joint

  • 01/11/25Winner: C. Bucsa6:3 6:1

Road through the tournament

Cristina Bucsa

Maya Joint