WTA TokyoWTA 500Qualifying round 2hardbest of three setsqualifying

Hontama vs Joint 0:2: result and our tips

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Mai HontamaWTA #168Elo 1608hard 1593
0:2final5:7 3:6
Maya JointWTA #90Elo 1780hard 1764

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Our tip
Total Games: Over 17.5Won72%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Over 17.5 games in recent matches: Hontama 14 of 20, Joint 19 of 20 (tour average 72%); Joint: 8 matches in a row over 17.5 games

Long shot
Total Games: Over 23.5Lost34%

Where the number comes from: chance from the market; the pick and the reasoning come from our data

Joint: 3 matches in a row over 23.5 games

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Mai Hontama24%
Maya Joint76%

Elo: M. Hontama 27% · M. Joint 73%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 M. Hontama13%
2:1 M. Hontama12%
2:1 M. Joint21%
2:0 M. Joint53%

First set

Mai Hontama30%
Maya Joint70%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes33%
no67%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 20.0 · 49%market (no margin): 51%

The 20.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 21.8

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.573%28%72%
18.564%36%64%
19.556%44%56%
20.549%51%49%
21.544%56%44%
22.538%62%38%
23.534%66%34%

Sample: 1,657 matches

Games handicap

Maya Joint −4.551%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes22%

tour average 22%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite won
  • Most likely set scorehit 0:2
  • Total games Over 20.0in · 21 games
  • Games handicapcovered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Mai HontamaMaya Joint
1Aces4
3Double faults1
70%First serves in86%
69%First-serve points won64%
47%Second-serve points won80%
1/6Break points converted3/4
7/10Service games held10/11
62%Service points won66%
34%Return points won38%
56Total points won67

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

M. HontamaTourM. Joint
Service points won55%56%55%
Return points won46%44%44%
Service games held57%63%61%
Breaks of serve43%37%36%
Aces per service game0.080.17
Double faults per game0.320.32
Sets with a tie-break8%10%
Tie-breaks won4/76/12
Wins in straight sets74%41%
Matches in the sample3847

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Mai Hontama

Maya Joint

Elo over the last year

Mai HontamaMaya Joint

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

M. HontamaM. Joint
Hard court15–1550%20–1754%
Clay3–350%1–517%
Grass1–150%1–325%

Head to head

M. Hontama 0–1 M. Joint

  • 25/01/25Winner: Maya Joint5:7 2:6

Road through the tournament

Mai Hontama

Maya Joint