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Challenger GuayaquilChallenger 75Round of 16claybest of three sets

Bueno vs Zarate 1:2: result and our tips

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Gonzalo BuenoATP #198Elo 1709clay 1718
1:2final6:3 5:7 5:7
Carlos Maria ZarateATP #341Elo 1526clay 1535

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Gonzalo Bueno66%
Carlos Maria Zarate34%

Elo: G. Bueno 74% · C. Zarate 26%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 G. Bueno44%
2:1 G. Bueno23%
2:1 C. Zarate15%
2:0 C. Zarate19%

First set

Gonzalo Bueno62%
Carlos Maria Zarate38%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes38%
no62%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineUnder 21.5 · 54%market (no margin): 50%

The 21.5 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 22.1

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
17.575%26%76%
18.566%34%68%
19.559%42%59%
20.553%47%52%
21.546%54%46%
22.541%59%40%
23.538%62%36%

Sample: 4,474 matches

Games handicap

G. Bueno −3.549%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes22%

tour average 27%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 1:2
  • Total games Under 21.5out · 33 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Gonzalo BuenoCarlos Maria Zarate
2Aces1
4Double faults5
65%First serves in52%
60%First-serve points won69%
56%Second-serve points won50%
4/6Break points converted4/12
12/16Service games held13/17
59%Service points won60%
40%Return points won41%
106Total points won105

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

G. BuenoTourC. Zarate
Service points won57%62%59%
Return points won42%38%39%
Service games held67%76%70%
Breaks of serve32%24%25%
Aces per service game0.130.29
Double faults per game0.300.28
Sets with a tie-break9%12%
Tie-breaks won10/148/9
Wins in straight sets63%67%
Matches in the sample6732

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Gonzalo Bueno

Carlos Maria Zarate

Elo over the last year

Gonzalo BuenoCarlos Maria Zarate

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

G. BuenoC. Zarate
Hard court3–350%1–150%
Clay35–2558%14–1647%
Grass0–10%0–0

Head to head

They have not met yet.

Road through the tournament

Gonzalo Bueno

Carlos Maria Zarate