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ATP ParisMasters 1000Round of 64hard, indoorbest of three sets

Buse vs Bergs 2:0: result and our tips

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Ignacio BuseATP #33Elo 1931hard 1854
2:0final6:2 6:4
Zizou BergsATP #40Elo 1959hard 1909

Our tips

No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.

Match chances

Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength. Chances and profiles as they stood before the match.

Winner

Ignacio Buse27%
Zizou Bergs73%

Elo: I. Buse 42% · Z. Bergs 58%

from the market (no margin)

Set score

2:0 I. Buse15%
2:1 I. Buse13%
2:1 Z. Bergs22%
2:0 Z. Bergs50%

First set

Ignacio Buse32%
Zizou Bergs68%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes35%
no65%

Total games

The bookmakers' lineOver 22.0 · 47%market (no margin): 51%

The 22.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).

Expected total: 23.6

Distribution of total games
LineOverUnderTour over
19.569%31%68%
20.561%39%60%
21.555%45%54%
22.547%53%46%
23.541%59%40%
24.538%62%38%
25.535%65%35%

Sample: 4,209 matches

Games handicap

Z. Bergs −3.552%

Tie-break in the match

Tie-break: yes42%

tour average 39%

How the forecast did

  • Favouritefavourite lost
  • Most likely set scorewas 2:0
  • Total games Over 22.0out · 18 games
  • Games handicapnot covered
  • Tie-breakno tie-break

Match stats

Ignacio BuseZizou Bergs
5Aces2
1Double faults2
70%First serves in69%
71%First-serve points won66%
56%Second-serve points won35%
4/10Break points converted1/5
8/9Service games held5/9
67%Service points won56%
44%Return points won33%
64Total points won51

Serve profile (12 months)

Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.

I. BuseTourZ. Bergs
Service points won62%62%65%
Return points won39%38%37%
Service games held75%76%81%
Breaks of serve27%24%22%
Aces per service game0.370.60
Double faults per game0.180.35
Sets with a tie-break17%18%
Tie-breaks won15/268/24
Wins in straight sets46%58%
Matches in the sample6051

Form

The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.

Ignacio Buse

Zizou Bergs

Elo over the last year

Ignacio BuseZizou Bergs

Record by surface (12 months)

Wins–losses over the last 12 months.

I. BuseZ. Bergs
Hard court9–853%12–1544%
Clay23–1462%7–750%
Grass3–350%7–370%

Head to head

I. Buse 0–1 Z. Bergs

  • 10/10/26Winner: Z. Bergs0:6 3:6