WTA 125 SopoRound of 32claybest of three sets
Carle vs Mediorreal Arias: prediction and tips
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Our tips
No tip for this match: when the tips were published, no bet on offer had clear support in our data. We never force a tip.
Match chances
Winner chance from the market (no margin). The other markets come from the history of matches with a similar balance of strength.
Winner
Maria Carle98%
Valentina Mediorreal Arias2%
Elo: M. Carle 83% · V. Mediorreal Arias 17%
from the market (no margin)
Set score
2:0 M. Carle89%
2:1 M. Carle8%
2:1 V. Mediorreal Arias2%
2:0 V. Mediorreal Arias1%
First set
Maria Carle94%
Valentina Mediorreal Arias6%
Full distance (3rd set)
yes10%
no90%
Total games
The bookmakers' lineUnder 16.0 · 47%market (no margin): 48%
The 16.0 line offered by bookmakers before the match: our chance on that line, and next to it the market's (from the odds, without the margin).
Expected total: 16.8
| Line | Over | Under | Tour over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12.5 | 90% | 10% | 99% |
| 13.5 | 79% | 21% | 97% |
| 14.5 | 66% | 34% | 93% |
| 15.5 | 53% | 47% | 86% |
| 16.5 | 42% | 58% | 78% |
| 17.5 | 30% | 70% | 68% |
| 18.5 | 22% | 78% | 59% |
Sample: 353 matches
Games handicap
M. Carle −8.548%
Tie-break in the match
Tie-break: yes6%
tour average 20%
Serve profile (12 months)
Matches with stats from the last 12 months, pulled towards the tour average on a small sample.
| M. Carle | Tour | V. Mediorreal Arias | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Service points won | 53% | 56% | 51% |
| Return points won | 47% | 44% | 40% |
| Service games held | 56% | 63% | 52% |
| Breaks of serve | 44% | 37% | 27% |
| Aces per service game | 0.09 | 0.13 | |
| Double faults per game | 0.48 | 0.39 | |
| Sets with a tie-break | 9% | 0% | |
| Tie-breaks won | 4/8 | 0/0 | |
| Wins in straight sets | 47% | — | |
| Matches in the sample | 35 | 4 |
Form
The last 10 matches in all tournaments, newest first.
Maria Carle
- 03/11/26LDespina Papamichail#231WTA 125 Cali · R322:6 7:5 4:6
- 29/10/26LJulia Grabher#115WTA 125 Curitiba · R165:7 5:7
- 27/10/26WLaura Pigossi#263WTA 125 Curitiba · R327:5 6:0
- 22/09/26LNuria Brancaccio#220WTA 125 Tolentino · R323:6 6:4 4:6
- 15/09/26LEkaterine Gorgodze#188WTA 125 Ljubljana · R325:7 7:6 4:6
- 11/09/26LRositsa Dencheva#202WTA 125 Antalya 4 · QF5:7 2:6
- 10/09/26WEva Vedder#180WTA 125 Antalya 4 · R166:1 6:2
- 08/09/26WGina Feistel#275WTA 125 Antalya 4 · R325:7 7:5 7:6
- 25/08/26LVendula Valdmannova#168WTA US Open · Q13:6 3:6
- 22/07/26LAnhelina Kalinina#56WTA Hamburg · R161:6 3:6
Valentina Mediorreal Arias
- 03/11/26LJulia Riera#137WTA 125 Cali · R321:6 1:6
- 08/09/26LAnna Blinkova#101WTA 125 Barranquilla · R321:6 0:6
- 30/03/26LTatjana Maria#68WTA Bogota · R322:6 1:6
- 01/12/25LLuisina Giovannini#186WTA 125 Quito · R326:3 2:6 3:6
- 28/10/25LDespina Papamichail#231WTA 125 Cali · R322:6 2:6
- 01/04/25LKatarzyna Kawa#118WTA Bogota · R321:6 1:6
- 06/11/24LJazmin Ortenzi#187WTA 125 Cali · R160:6 1:6
- 05/11/24WDaria KudashovaWTA 125 Cali · R326:7 6:4 6:3
- 01/04/24LKamilla Rakhimova#45WTA Bogota · R324:6 7:6 1:6
- 01/04/23LNuria Brancaccio#220WTA Bogota · Q10:6 2:6
Elo over the last year
Maria CarleValentina Mediorreal Arias
Record by surface (12 months)
Wins–losses over the last 12 months.
| M. Carle | V. Mediorreal Arias | |
|---|---|---|
| Hard court | 2–433% | 0–10% |
| Clay | 14–1352% | 0–30% |
| Grass | 1–150% | 0–0 |
Head to head
They have not met yet.
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